Showing posts with label decision. Show all posts
Showing posts with label decision. Show all posts

2017-11-22

Decisions

How do you make good decisions? As a manager, as a leader, as a general: making the right decisions, and instilling hope, purpose and a feeling of team unity in your troops are probably the two things that in the end make the difference between building enterprises or empires and failing.

Simple Internet guides advise

  1. Know the objective of your decision. If you do not know what you want, you won't get what you want. Consider this within your larger plans, how does it fit with them. Think about how important it is to make a decision in the first place. Are you really addressing the root cause of the issue that needs to be resolved? What is that root? Ask why repeatedly.
  2. Gather evidence. What kind of evidence is out there? Where can you get it, how can you get it? How much do you need? You need to manage your time here, there is a point of diminishing returns.
  3. Weigh the pros and cons. Make a list of the different options, and list what is the pro and con of each. What is the worst that could happen? What is the good? What are known unknowns that have an influence. Write the pros and cons down in a list.
  4. Ask for advice. Whom can you ask who has had similar challenges and can give you good advise? Friends, family, colleagues, peers, or someone who is an expert in the field? Be sure to ask for advise, not validation.
  5. Set deadlines - by when will you decide, by when will it be implemented?
  6. Take your ego out of the decision -- make sure you are honest with yourself and informed, rather than just seeking affirmation and praise. Don't think the value of your decisions determines your own value, look for opportunities to learn and grow from your decision-making process.
  7. (Don't be afraid to follow your intuition, and don't let fear guide your decision.)
  8. Decide, and follow through. Evaluate the outcome later -- was it what you expected?


The difficult thing about decisions is that there will be pros and cons and you have incomplete and unreliable information when you make them. You make decisions based on assumptions, and have little time to test them. And mind you, not making any decision effectively is also a decision, to stick with no action -- and sometimes the worst one.

In the military they say, if you hear something from one source it is noise, if from two sources, it is a rumour, and if from three sources, it is actionable information. I know of few managers who are disciplined enough to wait for the third confirmation of something they feel is going on.

I think Darwin was a great man, because when he had a theory or assumption, what he did was searching out any possible way to disprove it; and only if his theory could stand up to the strongest counterarguments he could think of, then he knew he was on the right track. You need a lot of mental fortitude and maturity to be able to do that.

In business, you often do not have the time to test your assumptions in this way? Try and think of easy and cheap ways to test and prove or disprove your assumptions.

The most common mistakes about decisions are either, to not take them, to waver and hem and haw, going back and forth (that's my most common failure mode), or to make them but flip back and forth too easily, not sticking to them, when new information and views become available, or to stick to them if they are wrong, even when clear counterfactual information becomes available. Also common is to make a gut decision up front, not keeping an open mind, and then only looking for supporting information, and dismissing counterfactuals.

Think about what kind of a decision you are dealing with. This is the best way to understand, what kind of heuristics you should apply to the process of taking them.

Is the decision unimportant, no matter which way it is taken? Ignore it.

Is the decision a unique situation that will not repeat, or is it something that is just the first of probably many similar situations? In the latter case, spend more time on thinking things through, and come up with a good general policy, that will save you from having to make the decision over and over on individual cases in the future.

Is the decision reversible, and will not commit you for the long term, or at huge cost? Then just pick something, and move on.

If you have to make decisions for a larger group, even if you are in a position of power, how do you ensure that the group will not silently undermine or sabotage the decision, that it does not only pay lip service to it?

How do you in a group bring out all the facts, how do you enable people

One way is to involve them as much as possible in the decision making process.

One of the main risks is that people are afraid to look stupid. Hence they tend to hold back their opinions, until a probable winning view can be seen, and then they pile into it.

There is often a divergence between power of position, and power of knowledge. Junior people are closer to the issues and technology and understand them better. Make sure they are heard. Everybody should voice opinions as equals, ignoring status. The process for decision making should be 1. Free discussion, looking at the problem from all perspectives, 2. a clear decision, even if not everyone can agree it is the right one, 3. full support by all, also those that did  not agree to implement it. If it turns out it was wrong, repeat. Take pains to frame the decision with utter clarity. Do not fudge to try and keep everyone happy by formulating it ambiguously.

Free discussion is the most difficult to achieve. People should express their view forcefully, but tend to hang back until they see a view winning, and then pile in to support it, to avoid being associated with a losing position. People are full of pride, ambition, fear, insecurity. People are afraid to stick their necks out. People are afraid of sounding dumb, and do not ask, when they do not understand. They are afraid to be vetoed or overruled and thus to lose face in front of their peers. (I might add, they are also afraid of coming across as spoilsports, of being accused of undermining a can-do spirit).
If sensitivities of two interest groups are involved, give both sides roughly equal representation in meetings to foster an even-handed decision.

Do not push for a decision prematurely, make sure you have heard and considered the real issues, rather than the superficial comments that often dominate the early stages of a meeting. Do not use authority to influence the exchange of views in any direction.

When all views and arguments have been brought out, when everything is heard, it is time to push for consensus. A decision has to be taken, even if no consensus can be found. A senior person with position authority must make a clear decision at that point.

To ratify a decision, listen to the alternatives and background, and reasons for the choice, and ask questions to probe the depth of information and thinking. If the final outcome is dramatically different from what people expect, make the announcement, adjourn so people have a chance to recover, then reconvene and solicit views, to help people accept and live with this outcome.

The important decisions, the ones that really matter are strategic. They are about finding out what the situation is, or changing it: on business objectives, organizational, affecting productivity, or about major capital-expenditure decisions. For these, the hard part is not problem solving, it is asking the right question. Few things are as dangerous as the right answer to the wrong question.
A decision should always be made at the lowest possible level, as close to the action as possible. It also should be made at the level where all that it impacts are considered. The first tells how far down it should be made, the second, how far down it can.
Once the decision has been made, it is essential that it be carried out. Nothing is as useless as the right answer that quietly disappears into the filing cabinet, or that is quietly sabotaged by the people supposed to carry it out. Decision-making has five phases:
1. Defining the problem
What courses of action are unacceptable and can be discarded, because of fundamental values, economic, moral, structural, cultural issues that cannot be touched? (quick-screen)
What is the critical factor that has to change before anything else can be done?
What will happen in time, if nothing is changed?
What could have been done or avoided, when the problem first appeared, that would have altered the present situation?
It the problem lack of or contradiction of objectives or organizational structure? Is it changes in the environment?
2. Analyzing the problem (finding the root cause of the problem)
Understand who must make the decision, who must be consulted and who informed:
i. What is the futurity of the decision — for how long into the future does it commit the company? How fast can it be reversed?
ii. What is the impact on other areas and functions — how much of the business does it affect?
iii. Does it affect fundamental values? What political, ethical, social questions have to be considered on that level?
iv. Is it a unique decision or is it recurrent? Does it only appear to be unique? The recurrent decision requires the establishment of a general rule, that is, a decision in principle. The rule needs maybe to be decided on a high level, but its application can then be done at a lower level. (This is like laws).
You will never have all the facts. Decisions must be made on incomplete knowledge. It usually is either impossible or too costly to get complete information.
3. Developing alternative solutions
We tend to see one solution and consider it the right if not the only one. Look for at least two or three alternative solutions. Do not just do the first thing that comes to mind. Alternative solutions are the only means to bring underlying assumptions out, and test if they are right. They are to only tool to force us to use our imaginations.
People who have to carry out the decision should always be involved in the work of developing the alternatives. All the typical creativity tools can be used here.
No action is a decision as valid as all other ones. Spell out the consequences that follow from a decision for no action.
4. Deciding upon the best solution
i. The decision should accomplish the desired end with minimum effort and disturbance. Don’t pick an Elephant gun to kill sparrows. What will give the most result for the least effort and disturbance? Often a 80% solution that is easily done is preferable to a vastly more resource-hungry 100% solution. (I combined here risk and effort.)
ii. Timing. Is urgent action needed, or long, continuous effort?
iii. Ability to implement. No decision can be better than the people who have to carry it out. It is well possible that the solution requires skill from people they do not possess today. Then the right course is to hire or train people to obtain this knowledge. The wrong decision may never be adopted because people and the competence to do what is right are lacking. If a solution requires more of people than they can give, they must learn to give more or be replaced by people who can. (How do you afford this? Often you are restricted by economical reasons to not do that?)
5. Converting the decision into effective action
Time spent on “selling” the solution is a waste. If the first steps were done right, it will sell itself by improving things. Also, what is right is determined by the nature of the problem. If people like it or not is quite irrelevant. They must be led to accept it, if they first like it or not.
To do so, remember the first law of rhetoric: present it to them in the language they speak and understand.
Biases
It is good to know about biases you have, courtesy of hardwiring by evolution for surviving as a hunter and gatherer in the wild, that may mislead your thinking when making decisions. There is a whole list
Tools
  • Make a list of Pros and Cons
  • Generate a second idea how to solve it. Brainstorm.  Do not go with the first thought you come up with, without at least looking for a non-obvious, better solution.


2017-10-23

Biases

Rolf Dobelli has compiled a list of cognitive biases in his book “The Art of Clear Thinking”. Kahnemann’s Thinking Fast and Slow also explains many of them, in the voice of the researcher that discovered them in the first place, and Cialdini’s Influence highlights how social biases are leveraged to manipulate us. Being aware of these biases is important for decision making. And because of this, they crop up in just about every management book, with the same stories and experiments told. This is my take and categorization on such a list of biases, together with ways to remember them, and the experiments that established them.

Social Biases

Biases that are created from our need to fit in, on social pressure, and inhibits our ability to think independently and fact based.
Authority
Halo Effect
Liking Bias
Reciprocity
Scarcity Error
Social Loafing
Social Proof
Authority: if an expert in a white lab coat says something, or an expert on television, then it has to be true. No, it has not. From: Cialdini Influences. Experiment: Stanely Milgram Electroshocks, 1961. Related: Halo Effect.


Halo Effect: one dominant attribute influences your perception of others. For example, good looking people are perceived to be more intelligent than they are. If you like someone, you tend to interpret their behaviour more favourably. Related: Liking Bias. 

Liking Bias. The principle of mutuality. The more we like someone, the more we allow us to be influenced by them. Liking is driven by physical attractiveness, similarity in background and attitudes to ourselves, and by feeling we are being liked by them. It has been shown that more than anything they say, looks are a predictor of success in elections. (Where?)  Conversely – nothing works better to make people like you than letting them feel that you like them. Antidote: think of the deal without the person, or with someone you don’t like.

Reciprocity: come in good sir, here take a cup of tea. Let me show you my beautiful carpets. If we get something, we want to give something back. We feel indebted. We do not want to be in debt. Even if that thing is small and insignificant in cost, like a free cup of tee, a flower or other gesture. It makes us willing to reciprocate, often in a much larger an more expensive buy. Beware of vendors bearing gifts. From: Cialdini Influences.


Scarcity Error. rara sunt cara. we find scarce things more attractive, even if the scarcity is created artificially. A form of Social Proof, if others want it too, it must be good. From: Cialdini Influences.

Social Loafing. Teams are lazy, as no on is accountable, and giving your all will mostly go unrewarded, not doing so, undetected. At about 20 people in the group, the effect maxes out. Also called Diffusion of Responsibility. In larger management teams, nobody is responsible for a decision alone, and failure will not hit him in particular. So most will not put their best effort in to think it through, and the group will take larger risks, the so called “risky shift“. Antidote: make individual contributions visible.


Social Proof: all the others are doing it, I must be wrong, even if I do not understand it. This is especially compelling if those others are similar to you. This urge is natural, because you can err, and what everyone does is in many cases an excellent heuristic for what the safest thing to do is. But in investing, and in many other cases this drives bubbles, and doing what everyone does is the worst thing you can do. The reason why you trot out customer stories, lists of customers, and testimonials. From: Cialdini Influences.

Ego Biases

Biases that originate in our need to have a positive self-image, or overvalue our power. To look good in front of others, and ourselves. These are difficult, but can be overcome with humility.
  • Action Bias
  • Beginner’s Luck
  • Cognitive Dissonance
  • Confirmation Bias
  • Consistency bias
  • Control Illusion
  • Endowment Effect
  • Overconfidence Effect
  • Self-serving Bias
  • Sunk Cost Fallacy
  • Winner’s Curse
Action Bias. We do not get paid for activity, we get paid for being right (Buffet). People rather do something than nothing. You do not look as if you are in charge if you do nothing, even if that is the right strategy, for example for investing. It pays to pass on all the mediocre opportunities and wait for the big ones. Its harder to do though, if you are sitting on a pile of cash and feel you have to act. Also: being busy may satisfy your conscience, in telling yourself you do what you can, but does not mean you achieve something. It’s the good boy’s procrastination. Results count, not your activity. Related: Omission Bias, Status Quo Bias.

Beginner’s Luck. were you only lucky, or are you good? If you at first succeed, you run the risk to overestimate your ability and put too much on the line. Related: Survivorship Bias.

Cognitive Dissonance. Who would want stupid grapes, said the fox, when he could not reach them. Like in Aesop’s fable, instead of being honest with ourselves if we cannot achieve something, or made a mistake, we rather tell ourselves a lie to make us feel better about it. That means we do not take action to achieve it, or repair it. Experiment: Festinger/Carlsmith at Stanford, Students paid less to lie about a boring works attractiveness, found it less boring — presumably because they had to justify having done it to themselves. 

Confirmation Bias: one of the worst and most fundamental biases. And one of the hardest to avoid: if we believe something is right, we become invested in that idea. Instead of looking for possible ways to invalidate it, and thereby harden it when it survives these tests, we look for evidence that supports our idea, and even ignore or reinterpret evidence against it. Antidote: Write down disconfirming evidence, otherwise your brain will forget it. Look for it actively. Have alarm bells go of in your head if you hear something that contradicts your plan or theory labelled as “special case”. Related: Survivorship Bias.

Consistency Bias (also: Hobgoblin's): a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds (Thoreau). We desire to be internally consistent and stick to positions we took. We do not want to admit to having made a mistake, to ourselves or others. We want to save face. So we continue with an erroneous judgment, instead of admitting to be wrong and doing the right thing. Are you secure enough to admit to having made the mistake? Related: Sunk Cost Fallacy.

Control Illusion: you think your actions influence the outcome more than they do. You also think in hindsight success was due to your effort, while you happily attribute failure to luck.  Antidote: focus on things really under your control.  Anecdotes: placebo buttons on lifts, red lights for crossing the street in NYC, office air conditioners. Related: Self-serving Bias.

Endowment effect
. Just take it for a test drive. As soon as you possess something, you do not like to give it up again.  That is why car salesmen want you to drive the car. Why pet stores let you take the puppy home. Also: once we buy and own something, we value it higher. Think trading cards – what you trade away for a card is much less then what you need to give up that card again. This also works against you in auctions – you feel as if it is yours already, and you defend it against other bidders. Antidote: Buddhism or Stoicism. Do not hang your heart onto things.


Overconfidence Effect The tendency to overestimate your own ability to estimate future outcomes. When estimating the outcome of future events, you often underestimate the breadth of possibilities due to a host of related biases. Established: Marc Alpert, Howard Raffia.

Self-Serving Bias. If I win, I’m to credit, if I lose, the circumstances are to blame. People like to believe that success is made by them, but failure is not their fault. It’s natural, you do not want to face that you are to blame, or did not really contribute that much. This is weak, as you do not recognize areas where you could improve. Think Magic. There is no point to blame bad luck. Analyze your game and eradicate your mistakes. Being self-righteous means you never improve. Antidote: good friends, or at least an enemy. Related: Control Illusion.

Sunk Cost Fallacy: I cannot stop now, or I’ll lose all the money and ego I already have invested in this. People have a hard time admitting they made a mistake. You want to be consistent in your behaviour, believable and trustworthy. That is what makes it hard to revert a course of action. You are loss averse and do not want to admit the money is lost, and nothing gained. But it is lost, if you put in more or not. You should only evaluate the current situation, and decide based on it what the right course of action is. Don’t throw more good money after bad. Related: Consistency Bias.

Status Quo Bias. We tend to overvalue the situation as it is. One example is, you wonder if you would move to another city for a job that pays $50,000 more, giving up your social envrionment. But if you picture yourself already being there, would you accept the $50,000 paycut to move back home into your current environment? Antidote: imagine the alternative to be the current situation Related: Endowment Effect.

Intuition Biases

Biases that originate in our intuitive thinking patterns that overvalue visual and story, and undervalue things that require require probability thinking, consideration of invisible options or that need projections of math.

  • Alternate Path Blindness
  • Anchoring
  • Availability Bias
  • Base-rate Neglect
  • Contrast Effect
  • Exponentiality Blindness
  • Fundamental Attribution Error
  • Gambler’s Fallacy
  • Memorability Bias
  • Outcome bias
  • Omission bias
  • Probability Bias
  • Self-selection Bias
  • Story Bias
  • Survivorship bias
  • Zero-Risk-Bias


Alternate path blindness. My live was full of calamities, of which most never happened. (Montaigne). If you only look at successful outcomes, you ignore the alternative possibilities that never happened. Russian roulette for a big bet, and diligently working half your life have similar expected value, but vastly different alternate paths. Related: Survivorship Bias.

Anchoring. A number we hear influences our estimates, acting at an anchor. Even if it has nothing to do with the question at hand. This is why negotiators start with a very high or low offer — to anchor our response. Experiment: Kahnemann, Tversky Wheel of Fortune. 

Availability Bias: you tend to consider things that are in front of you, and fail to consider things that are not. We overestimate things that are easy to recall. “Don’t wake the sleeping baby” in Japan is advise to not making the negotiation partner aware about something he is not. Antidote: work with people that are very different, and from different backgrounds, that bring other ideas and perspectives. Related:

Base-Rate-Neglect. humans ignore the a base rate prior probability in absence of evidence,  and overestimate the evidence. Imagine an introverted man with glasses — is he a professor of literature or a truck driver? The image we see fits better to the professor. We ignore that there are thousands of times more truck drivers than professors. Also happens often in medical diagnosis -- the base rate has a huge impact, and a common diagnosis a priori has a much higher chance to be right.

Contrast Effect: you do not well judge things in absolute terms, you tend to judge them in comparison to their environment. Thus Tobi’s Law, that if all the girls at a party are bland, the one least so will appear pretty. Thus Harner’s Alpha/Beta theory, why pretty girls have unattractive best friends. Thus Goldilocks Pricing, putting an extra expensive option up, to make people buy the medium priced one, instead of the cheap one. Related: Anchoring

Exponentiality Blindness
. The story of the wise man, who asked for a rice seed on each field of a chess board, doubled. Humans suck at projecting and visualising the effect of sustained exponential growth over longer time periods. Antidote: divide 70 by the annual growth rate: this is the number of years needed to double the amount.

Fundamental Attribution Error. No story without face. We like to tell ourselves stories that explain why something happened, even if there is no simple explanation in reality. And stories need actors. Thus the tendency to overestimate the influence of individuals like presidents and CEOs. Antidote: Look for interests and influences, not people, driving developments.

Gambler’s Fallacy. The roulette ball landed so often on red, it must land on black now. Obviously bunk, the probability of independent events is exactly that, independent of the past. In a fair roulette wheel, the probability for red or black is (ignoring the 0) 50%, no matter how often a color has appeared.

Logical and sequencing errors. Biases that confound cause and correlation.
Correlation for Causation
Association Bias
Conjunction Fallacy
Swimmers Body Illusion
Hindsight Bias
Regression to the mean
Hyperbolic discounting
Induction

Traps and dangers. Biases that do not fit the other categories, and may be based on evolutionary ingrained behavior that is not appropriate to today’s world, or on our overall limited capacity to make decisions or process information, or just on fraud due to lack of consequences for the individual.
Framing
Loss Aversion
Incentive superresponse tendency
It gets worse before it gets better
Tragedy of the commons
Selection Paradox
Prognosis Illusion
Hedonic Treadmill
Fake knowledge

List of Biases with Short Explanations


Survivorship Bias: I’ll look at highly successful results to understand what it takes to achieve success. Looking at successful outcomes gives you an incomplete idea if something works. It ignores that success can also be the result of many people trying something, most failing, some succeeding just by random chance, and those are the one you now examine. Antidote: look for the failures that had the same strategy, or survivors that had another strategy. Anecdote: a priest claims the letters of shipwreck survivors as proof of the existence of god, and then a sceptic asks: where are the letters of those that did not survive? Example: Dropping out of college. Survivorship bias may suggest this is a great strategy to get rich — just look at self-made milliardaires like Jobs and Gates who did this, and even studies that show that more of the millardaires dropped out than of the average person. However, if you look at the overall number of such milliardaires, and compare it to the number of peope that dropped out and never got a decent education and now as their job have to sell fries, you can see that for the average person, this may be a horrible strategy. Related: Confirmation Bias
Swimmers Body Illusion: All swimmers seem to have athletic bodies. Ergo, swimming must be great to get an athletic body. This is a special version of the common mistake of mixing up causation and correlation, the most extreme case of confusing cause end effect. People with a naturally athletic body have a better chance to become successful swimmers, and thus successful swimmers you see all have great bodies. Antidote: ask yourself if you really see causation or just correlation. From: Nassim Nicolas Taleb
It will get worse before it gets better: not really a bias, but a trick that allows consultants of all kind to be always right — if their guidance doesn’t work, they told you so. If it does work, this warning is happily forgotten.
Story Bias: wir merken uns Geschichten, nicht fakten. Und wir merken uns Dinge die eine Begründung haben leichter, als welche die keine haben. Egal ob diese sinnvoll ist.
Hindsight Bias: in hindsight everything seems obvious and easy. We forget, how unclear things were, when we made the decision. Antidote: write down your reckoning and reasons when making the decision, so you can check back.
Fake knowledge: know your circle of competence and stick to it. It may be possible to snow others and fake knowing an area by using soundbites, but it is not possible to make sound decisions that way. Anecdote: Max Planck’s talks on quantum dynamics and his chauffeur.
Incentive Superresponse Tendency. Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut. People deliver what you incentivize, not what you intend. External incentives lower performance, rather than intrensic incentives of making a good job. And consultants paid by effort will find ways to create unneeded effort. Not really a bias, but a cautionary note.
Regression to the mean. If things are bad, and then get better, or things are good and then get worse, this may be caused by their natural tendency to revert to the mean. You tend to overestimate the influence of your actions on this.
Tragic of the commons. A shared resource without cost is used by each user so heavily that it will be worthless to all. In an anonymous society there is no social shaming as control mechanism to stop selfish agents. Whenever the benefits of something accrue to the individual, but the costs are shared (for example pollution), management and laws are needed. The free market will not fix it.
Outcome bias. Judging decisions by their result, not by the decision making process. You can win a game of magic with luck, even if you made play mistakes. You can lose it even if you play flawlessly. You can succeed in stock picking by pure luck. Don’t judge someone purely based on the result. (Of course, it is hard to objectively judge the decision making process, and easy to see the result).
Selection Paradox. It is harder to decide on something the more options you have. Too many options lead to decision overload, you cannot evaluate them all. In the end you either take no decision, to not take the wrong one, or take one and are dissatisfied because you suspect it was the wrong one. Experiment: Barry Schwartz, Marmalades – customers bought more when there were fewer to choose from.
Memorability Bias. All the lights are red when I drive. We remember annoying things, and forget about all the cases where the lights were green. We have a tendency to igore prior probabilities. If something improbable happens, we tend to ignore the many times the probable happened. 

Neglect of probability: humans tend to ignore probability in assessing the impact of a risk, and only look at severity. Severity is easy to picture, probability isn’t. Experiment: Electroshock experiment — people were as afraid of the shock, wether there was a 100%, 50% or 5% chance to get a shock. Only the strength of the shock influenced the fear level. Only exception: at 0% chance, people were relaxed. 

Zero-Risk-Bias. We overvalue a risk going to zero. Experiment: People preferred a risk going from 1% probability to 0% over 5% to 2%, even though in absolute terms, the latter is a three times larger reduction. 


Winner’s Curse. In auctions, Endowment Effect and Scarcity Error combine powerfully to the bidders disadvantage — the party that ends up winning is often is paying too much, more than the good is worth. If you sell something, like a house or car, the best way to get a good price is to have multiple bidders, and run them against each other. Antidote: Buffett recommends to just not bid in auctions. 


Induction. Guessing from past experience at future events. This is actually highly rational but still may go very wrong. Imagine a geese being fattened for Christmas — every day she is fed, life is good. Until that fateful day when suddenly, she instead is killed. Antidote: think about what is driving the observed behavior, and if that still holds. 

Loss aversion. In the past, a mistake often was deadly. So we are primed to be more careful about risks than greedy for benefits. You can easily survive without eating honey (or anything) for quite a while, but one mistaken encounter with a bear, and you are history. We experience losses about twice as strongly as equivalent wins. Argue with avoiding a possible loss, not with a possible win, if you want to convince. Most employees shy away from taking risks, because if they win they may get a small bonus, but if they fail they might lose their job.

Taking correlation for causality. Married people live longer. Ergo, marriage is good for living longer. Or is it maybe, that healthy people have better chances of finding a partner? This is one of the most fundamental and common ones. Antidote: check if you really have data that indicate a cause-effect relationship. 
Halo-Effect. People do judge the book by its cover. Looking only at the most visible attribute, and letting our judgment of all others be influenced by it. We think beautiful people are smarter.

Prognosis Illusion. There are two kinds of people – those that know nothing and those that know nothing and do not know that they know nothing (Galbraith).Experiment: Tetlock showed by reviewing more than 80,000 prognoses, that the prognoses of experts do not differ much from random prediction.

Conjunction Fallacy. We attribute higher probability to stories that seem to “make sense”, even though they logically have to be less probable. For example, Experiment: Kahnemann & Tverski: people asked what was more probable “Oil consumption drops 30%” or “Oil consumption drops 30% due to a steep rise in oil price” preferred the latter prediction as more probable, even though the former one included it, among many other possible reasons.

Framing. It’s not the song, it’s the singer. Depending how the facts are presented, they are seen differently. This is different from Anchoring, as it is not dependent on a context. Famous Experiment: Kahnemann & Tverski: people preferred saving 200 people out of 600 over a 1/3 chance to save all, and at the same time preferred a 1/3 chance to kill no one over killing 400 out of 600. Mathematically they are all equivalent, but we prefer sure gains and are Loss Averse. As we inherently are naturals in imagining probabilities, the probability based versions seem less substantial in either case.


Omission Bias. We tend to overvalue errors of commission, compared to errors of omission. Putting money in the wrong stock feels worse than not putting money in a great stock. Killing someone feels worse than not saving someone from being killed. Related: Action Bias. The difference is that for action bias the situation is less clear. Here it is often clear what one should do, but does not feel so urgent.

Hedonic Treadmill. Buying things only makes us happy for the short term. Soon they become the new normal, and we are back to where we started. True happiness or being content only comes from within, from the ability to be grateful, to enjoy the small things. It does not come from amassing things. Experiment: Dan Gilbert investigated self-reported happiness of people after they won in lotto or lost the use or their legs in an accident. A few months later, they all were back to their base levels. The winners sometimes even less happy. Antidote: avoid chronic negative experiences like noise, long commutes, stress. Don’t expect happiness from things. Be in control of your time, autonomous. Care for others.

Self-Selection Bias. See above – the feeling that you are somehow specially selected or unlucky, in the slow lane all the time. It’s just because only then you start to think about it. If you are in the other group, you do not mind.

Association Bias. Shoot the messenger of bad news. We tend to associate things that appear together, even if they have no causal relation. We are superstitious, and wear our lucky pants.  Experiment: Pawlow’s dog.
Hyperbolic Discounting.Leider geil. We have a hard time resisting instant gratification for something that pays off more in the future. That’s why we party and watch youtube videos, instead of studying or getting our work done. We are more willing to forgo money in a year to get a higher payout in two, than willing to forgo money now to get a higher payout a year from now. Experiment: Walter Mischel, children who had the choice of eating a sweet now, or get two if they wait. The ones who waited, had better career success. 

2017-10-21

The Practice of Management

The Practice of Management
by Peter F. Drucker
 
Preamble
Like all of Drucker’s books, there is a lot of deep insight here, and some common themes reiterated. Especially the sections on the spirit of an organization, management by objectives are good.
This one is a bit dated, being published in 1955 first. Apparently “automation” was all the rage at the time, as Drucker oracles on how it will influence the work environment throughout (calling it “the new technology”). Drucker also differentiates between managing managers, professional employees and “workers”, writing at a time of industrial production on the assembly line, with few “knowledge” or “professional” workers, and a lot of unskilled labor. He talks at length about the managerial role of foremen etc. Other books of his have aged better in this regard. As ideally the worker should be able to look at the business with managerial viewpoint to do the right thing, and Drucker prescribes largely the same focus areas for both groups, I will combine them here.
Management is about managing the business, and the enterprise.
The Business
The purpose of a business is to create a customer through marketing and innovation.
Thus, managing a business is entrepreneurial, it cannot be bureaucratic or administrative. It cannot be passive or adaptive. It must take decisions on actions to create future results.
Marketing
The customer determines what a business is. What the customer thinks he is buying, what he considers value is decisive. It determines what a business needs to be and to produce to prosper. Marketing is figuring out what this is, and providing it. Not just selling what the business happens to make.
What is our business, and what should it be?
Ask yourself: Who is the customer? The actual and potential customer? Where is he, how does he buy, how can he be reached? And most crucial: what does he buy? What does he consider value? What are his unsatisfied needs? What does he look for, when he buys the product? (For some luxury goods, the high price itself is value). Never try to guess, ask or even better, observe!
How will trends, economic developments, innovation, technology, fashion and taste change? How will they affect what the customer wants and needs, and what wants and needs do exist that are not met by services and products offered today? Therefore: What should our business be? Are we in the right business, or should we change? To what? This may be many kinds of change, like change to a service model? Instead of selling new customers, keep and expand old ones?
Services should always be measured by regular, unbiased and systematic questioning of the customer. This may take the form of an annual customer survey.
A business that supplies less than a certain share of the market becomes a marginal supplier.
Innovation
Innovation can be in lower price, better product, new convenience or creation of a new want. It goes through all parts of a business, design, production, marketing, management. Successful companies are in danger of living of past successes instead of continuing to innovate.
In Innovating for productivity gains, scheduling of work flow is the greatest time saver. Mass production is based on uniform parts or modules, which can be assembled into a great variety of products. The burden of diversity is shifted from manufacturing to assembly.
Profit
Enterprise must operate with adequate profit, it is its social responsibility as well as its first duty towards itself and its workers. It is the first duty of the business to survive, that is, to avoid loss and liquidation. Sufficient profit is the only source to cover the risks of economic activity. Profit is the final result of successful business activity.
Profit is not the purpose of business, nor the reason for its behavior and decisions: it is how results are measured.
Management must maintain its wealth producing resources intact by making profit to offset the risk of economic activity. It must increase these resources and with them the wealth of society. A shareholder always can sell his stock, but society is stuck with the enterprise, and has to take the impoverishment if the enterprise does not succeed with innovation and growth, does not succeed in generating adequate profit.
Profit is the yardstick to warn you from pouring money and energy into bolstering the weak, ailing and declining, instead of strengthening the strong and growing among your ventures. It also should block the dangerous and most deceptive alibi for following the line of least resistance: that an otherwise unprofitable venture pays for itself by “absorbing overhead”.
You measure profit as return on invested capital over borrowing cost. (Other, simpler methods may also be applicable, like as percentage of sales; depends on your goals).
If a management cannot over a reasonable period of time create profit, it should abdicate. If the business will not be able to create profit for too long, eventually it will fail.
Where will capital come from? How much will you need? What is the capital market rate for financing? What will your ROI be (see EVA)? Plan capital supply and calculate expected profit over capital cost over the life of the investment. This also overcomes artificial annual budgeting.
You need a rational capital-allocation policy. Otherwise you will always arbitrarily grant or withhold capital and centralize the management of cash. It must be based on a reasonable and reliable assessment of the ratio between returns and risks. (How?) How much should go into productivity improvements? How much into new designs? “Any fool can stay in budget, but it’s hard to draft a budget worth staying within.”
No company can be good at everything. Focus on your strengths. Outsource what others can do 
better.
Society
The enterprise must consider the impact of every business policy and action on society.
Responsibility implies authority. You can only be held responsible for that which you had the power to decide. There can be no responsibility without authority. As it would be intolerable for management to have authority over colleges, culture, the arts, free press, society cannot ask it to take responsibility for them. Management and enterprise can only assume responsibility for that on which it legitimately can claim authority, and indeed owes society to take responsibility there.
What is good for the country must be good for business, not the other way round. Hostility to capitalism is moral and ethical. It is attacked not because it does not work, but, because it is cynical. A society based on the assertion that private vices like greed will turn into public good cannot endure. In a lasting, moral society, the public good must always rest on private virtue. 
The enterprise
The needs of the customer have to be turned into action in the enterprise. The manager has to bring out whatever strength is there in his resources — especially people — and neutralize whatever there is in weakness.
Balancing contradicting needs is the hallmark of good management. One core challenge is balancing the short and long term needs. If the enterprise is not profitable in the present, there will be no enterprise in the future. Depreciation replacement, maintenance, capital replacement, research, product development, design, training and education, promotion and advertising, service — you can save on all these in the short term to make numbers look good, but will hurt the long term prospects of the business. You can increase them all short term, and may see results only in the long term. Modest but steady over time beats frantic back and forth. It also gives job stability to people.
Whatever he does should be sound in expediency as well as in basic long range objective and principle. He has to harmonize immediate and long term needs. Where he cannot harmonize them, he must carefully balance sacrifices. (Look at the detail to understand the big picture).
The basic operations in the work of the manager are setting objectives, organizing and planning work and jobs, developing and motivating people, and measuring . The contribution of the manager is uniquely to provide vision and ability to perform. It is vision and moral responsibility that in the last analysis define the manager.
1. He sets objectives, derived from the needs of the business in general and derived from this in each area. He communicates them to the people whose performance is needed to obtain them. This requires reconciling business outcomes and the principles one believes in, immediate need and future need, desirable ends and available means. It therefore requires analytical and synthesizing ability.
Spend more time on listening than talking. Do not talk to your men about your own problems, but make them talk about theirs. They spend a great deal of time on a half-yearly manager letter, up to a whole day for each of their reports. They think about their boss’ problems, the enterprises, and what they can do to help.
2. He organizes. He analyzes activities, decisions and relations needed. He classifies the work and divides it into manageable activities, and those into jobs. He groups these activities and jobs into an organizational structure (see Sloane). This again requires analytical ability.
3. He develops and motivates people. He does so through giving them responsibility, incentives, fair promotion policy. He selects people for the management of units and jobs. He helps them in developing themselves .
This requires integrity, justice, care, and respect. He needs to put the common good of the company before his own advantage. Integrity of character is something that cannot be learned, and is central. (I think he learned this from Sloane, too).
4. He measures. He establishes meaningful yardsticks that capture performance for the overall enterprise as well as for the key areas of business performance, and actionable performance of the individual. He makes these measurements available for self-control to each man, rather than for control. Without measuring, there can be no rational decision making. This again requires analytical ability.
Planning
Work will become easier and more effective and productive, when we plan before we do. Managers who know the use of time well succeed by planning. They spend a lot of time thinking through areas in which objectives should be set, and a great deal more on thinking through systematically what to do with recurrent problems. If they have a recurrent crisis, they spent time to find out what causes it to avoid repetition.
This does not mean the planner and doer should be different people. There is better planning if the man to carry out the work is involved in the planning. What is a good strategy to plan?
At its core is the study and analysis of work into simplest elements, and then improving the workers performance on each of these elements. This idea of being able to improve work by first breaking it down into its constituent elements, laying them out in a logical order, and work to improve them was a liberating, pioneering insight.
How well people are managed determines if goals will be reached. A great plan fails in flawed execution. (Welch — simple plans and powerful execution are more nimble and beat big planning).
No management by drives. It is a sign of lack of planning and of confusion.
Maxims
Give people maximum authority, and full responsibility for results.
You get what you reward, not, what you preach.
You can only lead by example.
Management by objectives
Each job should have clearly spelled out objectives. How is it to help other units, and what it can expect from them? Teamwork must be considered right from the start. The objectives should cover all areas of the business affected, even if the contribution is small, so people understand the overall needs and the need to balance. They should include both tangible business objectives, performance and development. Good objectives give people clear information what is expected from them.
The manager should develop the objectives for his unit himself. Higher management should review, approve or disapprove. Each manager should participate in setting objectives for the higher unit of which he is a part. The goals should be measurable. The measure must not be rigidly quantitative or exact, but clear, simple and rational, and should direct attentions and efforts where they need to go. The measurements should go to the manager himself, not to his superior. (Goodhearts Law: “when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure”; SMART goals, e.g. specific, measurable, agreed, realistic, time-bound)
In a “manager’s letter” written once or twice a year each manager should define the objectives of his superior’s job and of his own; the performance standards which he believes are applied to him; the things he must do to attain these goals, the major obstacles; the things that his superior and the company do to help or hamper him. Are there conflicting demands made, or work asked for that is then not used? Grievances and suggestions what can be done to fix them. Finally, what he proposes to do during the next year to reach his goals.
Understanding can never be attained just by communicating down, by telling. It only can be by asking, and listening.
Procedures only can work where judgment is no longer required. The test of a good procedure is that it quickly identifies situations that do not fit the pattern but require special handling and judgment. Reports are often abused as an instrument for control from above. Reports and procedures should be kept to a minimum, and used only if they save time and labor. At least once every few years all reports should be stopped, and only the ones re-established, which managers still requested after living without them for a month or two. They should focus on the key performance areas. To “control” everything is to control nothing.
The ability to go around obstacles rather than charge them head-on is a major requirement for managing by objectives. (See also Richard Branson)
Make real budgets, and let people run with them. Do not run your division managers jobs, and do not appraise them on how much they allow you to do so. It is ineffectual and de-motivating. “Projectitis” is a common disease resulting from attempts of management to control professional work which they do not understand.
Leadership – the Spirit of the Organization
A man lacking in integrity destroys people, spirit and performance. The spirit of an organization is created from the top. If it decays, it is so because the top rots. (This is called values nowadays).
The purpose of an organization is to “make common men do uncommon things” (Lord Beveridge). The test of good spirit is performance, not conformance. It’s the abilities, not the disabilities that count. Only high performance can build spirit.
It is the willingness of people to give of themselves over and above the needs of the job that distinguishes the great organization.
A manager who sets his goals low, and consistently fails to perform must be removed from his job. Decisions on a person demand the greatest consideration for the individual. If possible give them another job fitting his strengths — you should be able to find one with effort and imagination.
What is needed for proper spirit is morality: emphasis on strength, integrity, high standards of justice and conduct. Again here, you get what you reward, not, what you preach. And you can only lead by example. It must be practice, not sermon.
People may forgive ignorance, bad manners, insecurity but they will not forgive lack of integrity.
1. No condoning of mediocre or poor performance.
2. Each job must be a rewarding job in itself.
3. A rational and just promotion system.
4. Clarity: who makes salary, job scope, promotion and demotion and dismissal decisions?
5. Integrity : no lies, keep your word, treat people with respect.
Do not promote a man to management: Who focuses on people’s weaknesses; Who is more interested in the question “Who is right?” than “What is right?”; Who considers intelligence more important than integrity; Who is afraid of strong subordinates; Who does not set high standards for his own work, for it breeds contempt for the work and managements competence.
You cannot buy loyalty; you can only earn it.
Leadership cannot be taught or learned.
Decisions
Whatever a manager does, he does through making decisions.
The important decisions, the ones that really matter are strategic. They are about finding out what the situation is, or changing it: on business objectives, organizational, affecting productivity, or about major capital-expenditure decisions. For these, the hard part is not problem solving, it is asking the right question. Few things are as dangerous as the right answer to the wrong question.
A decision should always be made at the lowest possible level, as close to the action as possible. It also should be made at the level where all that it impacts are considered. The first tells how far down it should be made, the second, how far down it can.
Once the decision has been made, it is essential that it be carried out. Nothing is as useless as the right answer that quietly disappears into the filing cabinet, or that is quietly sabotaged by the people supposed to carry it out. Decision-making has five phases:
1. Defining the problem
What courses of action are unacceptable and can be discarded, because of fundamental values, economic, moral, structural, cultural issues that cannot be touched? (quick-screen)
What is the critical factor that has to change before anything else can be done?
What will happen in time, if nothing is changed?
What could have been done or avoided, when the problem first appeared, that would have altered the present situation?
It the problem lack of or contradiction of objectives or organizational structure? Is it changes in the environment?
2. Analyzing the problem (finding the root cause of the problem)
Understand who must make the decision, who must be consulted and who informed:
i. What is the futurity of the decision — for how long into the future does it commit the company? How fast can it be reversed?
ii. What is the impact on other areas and functions — how much of the business does it affect?
iii. Does it affect fundamental values? What political, ethical, social questions have to be considered on that level?
iv. Is it a unique decision or is it recurrent? Does it only appear to be unique? The recurrent decision requires the establishment of a general rule, that is, a decision in principle. The rule needs maybe to be decided on a high level, but its application can then be done at a lower level. (This is like laws).
You will never have all the facts. Decisions must be made on incomplete knowledge. It usually is either impossible or too costly to get complete information.
3. Developing alternative solutions
We tend to see one solution and consider it the right if not the only one. Look for at least two or three alternative solutions. Do not just do the first thing that comes to mind. Alternative solutions are the only means to bring underlying assumptions out, and test if they are right. They are to only tool to force us to use our imaginations.
People who have to carry out the decision should always be involved in the work of developing the alternatives. All the typical creativity tools can be used here.
No action is a decision as valid as all other ones. Spell out the consequences that follow from a decision for no action.
4. Deciding upon the best solution
i. The decision should accomplish the desired end with minimum effort and disturbance. Don’t pick an Elephant gun to kill sparrows. What will give the most result for the least effort and disturbance? Often a 80% solution that is easily done is preferable to a vastly more resource-hungry 100% solution. (I combined here risk and effort.)
ii. Timing. Is urgent action needed, or long, continuous effort?
iii. Ability to implement. No decision can be better than the people who have to carry it out. It is well possible that the solution requires skill from people they do not possess today. Then the right course is to hire or train people to obtain this knowledge. The wrong decision may never be adopted because people and the competence to do what is right are lacking. If a solution requires more of people than they can give, they must learn to give more or be replaced by people who can. (How do you afford this? Often you are restricted by economical reasons to not do that?)
5. Converting the decision into effective action
Time spent on “selling” the solution is a waste. If the first steps were done right, it will sell itself by improving things. Also, what is right is determined by the nature of the problem. If people like it or not is quite irrelevant. They must be led to accept it, if they first like it or not.
To do so, remember the first law of rhetoric: present it to them in the language they speak and understand.
Organizational Structure
Whatever strength individuals have must become the source of strength for the whole group — that is the first principle of organization. If there is a lack of a clear organization, people spent their time trying to figure out what they should do, instead of doing it. A good structure is not the end, but it is a necessary foundation; without it, most other managerial efforts will come to naught.
To create a working organizational structure, look at the activities that need to be carried out, and the relations between different groups that are affected by them, sideways and upwards. In a small enterprise, they should be able to be done in a few hours and a few sheets of paper. (Then consider the people you have and their strength.)
The largest possible number of managers should have business responsibility, and be measured by business results, not by professional criteria. They should not be administrators or bureaucrats. The structure should encourage new products and businesses, and discourage old, unprofitable products and businesses to continue.
It should have the least possible number of management levels. Take heed of the Catholic Church, which has only one level, the bishop, between the Pope and the lowly priest.
Managerial control can only handle six to eight subordinates. Managerial responsibility, counseling, can be many more. A manager should always have more people than he can control, so he will not have the time to try and take over their jobs. Teams should normally not exceed five or six members, and they work best with three to four. (Communication channels grow n*(n-1)/2 with people involved). Only individuals can manage, teams are better to disperse policy.
Many levels are a sign of bad organization, as is overhead, such as co-ordinators, assistants, liaisons; as are lots of coordinating meetings, committees; as is going through the “proper channels” instead of directly to the man who has the information. The latter is not just a symptom, it is a cause of misorganization.
Overhead includes management and innovation work, but also waste like mismanagement and bad organization (the “co-ordinator” is a sure sign of it).
The structure should enable the training and testing of tomorrows managers buy giving them actual management responsibility in an autonomous position, where they at least can see the whole business.
Functional organization
Proper functional organization is by stage of process. Functional organization should always aim to give as complete products as possible, so that the objectives of the functional manager are connected to business results. Ideally every functional manager should report to the general manager of a unit or product business. An enterprise is too big for functional organization, if it requires more than two levels of functional managers.
Every functional manager tries to increase the importance and influence of his function, often even to the detriment of the overall business. It is human nature.
Small business has functional organization. The main problem of the small business is that it typically cannot support the management it needs. Top management should set aside at least one week each year for a review conference, out of office, to get away from day-to-day, and think about the bigger picture. It should be attended by every senior member of management. It should focus on the needs of the company years ahead, and on setting objectives for all key areas. It should appraise results in these areas achieved it the past year, and assign responsibility for them to individual members of the group.
Federal decentralization is more powerful than functional decentralization, but it works only for larger enterprises. (Skipping the part about non-small and large businesses.) Central management must be able to override local ambitions. (E.g. by setting products or price ranges). Someone who has shown extraordinary good performance should be considered a candidate for promotion out of his original unit.
Growth
The requirement for successful growth is the ability of management to drastically change its basic attitudes and behavior (probably because fast growth changes the nature of the business, and what was good for a startup, does not work in a more mature organization?)
The problem of size cannot be met by trying to keep in communication with managers or employees as far down as possible. That is neither required nor desirable. The larger the business, the more will top management be concerned with setting objectives, and the less with the steps to their attainment. The personal touch is no substitute for performance.
The normal reason for growth is success and the normal reason for success is able management. That problems of growth are problems of success is why they are so difficult.
CEO and the board
The CEO thinks trough the business of the company, develops overall objectives, makes the decisions to reach them, and communicates them to his management, educates it to see the business as a whole, helps them to develop their own objectives from those of the business, reviews them and measures performance and results against them. He ensures that there is a bench of managers being developed, makes basic decisions on organizing the company, arbitrates in case of conflict, and asks his managers the right questions. He only takes personal command in an emergency. He negotiates, plans capital expenditure, and suggests dividend to the board. He prepares the agenda for the board meeting.
Do not waste your time running functions, when you should be leading the organization. Entertaining customers or supporting sales, correcting technical plans, checking expenditures of others is not your job. You not only fail to do your work, you prevent others from doing theirs. (What about management by walking around, i.e. staying in touch with people on all levels to develop a feeling what is going on?)
If the top man gets a salary several times as large as number two, three or four, you can be pretty sure that the firm is badly managed. (Drucker then goes on that the job is too large for one man, and must be done by a team, with one maybe first among equals. The idea has taken hold in other C-level positions).
The board is not a governing organ, although it legally represents the owners and holds all power. It acts only in crisis, and then only to remove executives that failed and to appoint new ones. Otherwise its role is review, appraisal, appeal. It must be detached from operations and see the company as a whole. Working executives may not dominate it.
Motivating workers
The two most important areas in the management of workers are the organization of work, and the placement and development of the people who do the work. And this can only be done by the line managers. It must build on underlying strength and focus on the positive. Experience shows that what a man is good at is also what he wants to do. Organizing for work means putting the man on the job he will do best.
It is not the business of the enterprise to create worker happiness, but to make and sell shoes. (Or, databases). Still, to perform the task of the management is to reach the worker’s motivation and to enlist his participation, to mobilize his desire to work. How?
Motivation must have its center in the work.
The work itself must be meaningful. The enterprise must demand active assumption of responsibility for results by the worker. It can nourish this by careful placement, high standards of performance, providing the information the worker needs to control himself, and by participation that gives the worker managerial vision.
The worker demands justice through equal opportunity for advancement; that his work be meaningful and serious. High standards of performance and a high degree of competence in the way the work is organized and managed, and visible signs of managements concern for good work (see employees complaining about bad quality in other sites, and management’s apparent disinterest in this fact. But what is quality? It is not what we build in, it is what our users get out.)
Plan and schedule work ahead of time. Keep things spotless (tools, machines, code). Insist on the best tools and replace them when they wear out. That’s all that is needed. No fancy HR gimmicks.
Human resources or personnel administration departments are always going to be constrained to administrative and incidental chores, lest they usurp managerial positions that are focusing on business outcomes. They tend to put the stress on inter-personal relations, missing the point. The good professional employee has little respect for the administrator.
Developing people
Development is always self-development. The best people educate themselves. Responsibility rests with the individual, his efforts, his abilities. But you must think about each person’s strengths to give them opportunity. For this the best is a systematic way of appraising performance. How to offer challenges and opportunities for the individual development of each worker to the fullest of his ability?
The decisions to hire, to appoint and to promote are the most crucial decisions you can make. Job requirements and organizational structure will change as they always have. Development must not just replace yesterday, but focus on the needs of tomorrow. What skills will be needed? What knowledge? Thus placement must be a continuous and systematic effort and is one of the most important tasks in the management of worker and work. It must be reviewed continually. It must give workers the opportunity to rise from the bottom according to their ability.
Management must demand also that the worker be willing to accept change. For this, change must appear as an improvement. It must not be so fast as to make people feel lost. It must be rational.
You need a formal performance appraisal process, best with feedback from peers. The reason for promotion must always be performance, not “potential”. Identify strength, the greatest mistake is to try and build on weakness (see Hornblower). Only when the strengths are known, does it make sense to ask: what weaknesses must be overcome to make the progress the strengths would support? Give people a way to appeal against wrong decisions at a higher level. Promotion should not be entirely from within. That should be the norm, but exclusivity leads to inbreeding.
If developing people is the most important thing for success, then if follows that you only can be the best and develop yourself by learning to make others successful. No one can develop himself unless he works at the development of others.
It is not necessary that everybody be promoted but it is necessary that everybody knows there are opportunities for the man who performs well. There will always be more people wanting to get recognized through promotion than opportunities for promotion, and some will be driven into opposition of management by this in order to exercise their leadership.
Because placement decisions are so important, they should be reviewed by a manager’s supervisor; but they should be the managers to make, otherwise he lacks real authority and consequently responsibility.
The long-term survival of any enterprise depends on being able to hire the ablest, most dedicated young people. For this, the promise of a living is not enough. The enterprise must be able to give such man a vision and a sense of mission, to satisfy their desire to meaningful contribution to society (well, at least for idealists. There are some who just want to get rich).
The power of a company to attract good man is proportional to its name for excellence.
High standards of performance 
The enterprise must demand more than a fair day’s work. It must build esprit de corps. The work must encourage and demand the growth of the individual that performs it. The job must always challenge the worker. The nature of man demands that performance of the best, not of the worst be the goal for all. It is the peculiarity of man that he yields best to high demands. The capacity to produce depends largely on the level of demands made (see Edgar).
Management must set and enforce on itself high standards for its own performance of those functions that determine the workers ability to perform. Few things constitute such conclusive proof of management’s incompetence as when people idle. The first test on its competence is its ability to keep people working with minimal disruption.
Information, Measurement and managerial vision
No sale, no job.
People need to know what is expected of them (see Management by objectives above). Let people measure their own work. They will be finding more ingenious ways by themselves to improve, especially if there is competition.
Managerial vision means that the vision of the individual must be directed towards the overall goals of the business, their will and efforts be bent towards reaching these goals. The worker will assume responsibility and act for the good of the whole only if he has managerial vision, that is, if he sees the enterprise as if he were a manager responsible for its success.
There are powerful forces of misdirection in the specialization of work, the hierarchical structure and in differences in vision and values. Especially dangerous is the employee who aims to do the best possible professional job in his area, and disregards the overall goals and needs of the enterprise for it. Professional work must have highest standards lest it be dishonest and corrupts. But performance must be measured to overall goals, not just the own professional criteria. Otherwise the professional work becomes a centrifugal force to pull the enterprise apart.
Any job whose objectives can be set in the main focusing directly on business objectives is a managerial one. Any job whose objectives cannot be so derived is not; it is a professional one. The worker must know how his work relates to the overall enterprise. This is challenging as conventional data (P&L, Balance, etc) mean nothing to him.
Internally the company is not a market economy. It is directed. So while the effort of management is increasing the total product, the effort of the worker is receiving a larger share, whatever the total product may be. Outside the enterprise, considerations are economic. Inside they are based on power balance and power relationships. The enterprise needs flexibility of the wage burden, the worker needs steady and predictable income. To the enterprise profit is a necessity for survival. To the worker, it is someone else’s income.
Organizations are not the extension of individuals. They create their own political sphere, with relationships involving real and health problems of power, and conflicts which are not conflicts of personality, but objective conflicts of vision and interest.
Security of continuing employment is the one really important security for the worker. Next to it, all others pale. Their job is their stake in the enterprise. Thus, the real job is to convince workers that there is an ever-present danger of loss, that profit therefore is necessary to build their own future job and livelihood, that profits will make it more secure and enjoyable.
Job rotation is not useful, when the goal is understanding business as a whole, experience at one or two narrow specialties does not help. A good course on marketing or a good book teaches this much better.
How not to motivate
Money is important as a hygiene factor — its absence damages. But satisfaction with money is not a sufficient positive motivation.
Fear corrupts him who uses it and him who fears. Fear is not a good tool to motivate people who can escape. Absence of fear is not motivation by itself either. There is no worse sin than turning a man’s capacity to perform into a threat for himself and others.
The tendency of many enterprises to assume paternal authority over their people and demand of them a special allegiance is socially irresponsible usurpation, indefensible on the grounds alike of public benefit and the company’s self interest. The company is not, and must never claim to be home, family, religion, life or fate for the individual. It must never interfere in his private life or citizenship.
A man who is deeply dissatisfied may quit or become bitter and move into opposition to the company and management.