2018-10-21

High Output Management

by Andy Grove

Notes on one of the most-recommended old-school management books for tech startups.


The output of a manager is the output of the organizational units under his supervision or influence.

What is that output? How is it measured? 


Effectiveness

Managerial Leverage
Do high leverage activities, those where your investment of time contributes most to increase output. Forget the rest. You also can have negative leverage, when you de-motivate your employees by badmouthing the company, when you do not provide them with clear direction, or when you do not make a decision. No green light is a red light, and can freeze the organization. Meddling has negative leverage, when you involve yourself too deeply in your subordinate's work, taking their ownership away (even if you are better at it than they are).

Take control of your time
The most important resource you allocate for leverage is your own time. Capital and manpower can be obtained. More personal time can not. Your calendar is your most important management tool. Actively manage it. Fill holes between time critical events with non-time critical but necessary activities. Do not allow others to throw in orders for your time. This is mindless passivity, defense, not offense. Say NO at the outset to work beyond your capacity to handle. Allow slack, a bit of looseness in your scheduling (like 3/4 h meetings instead of 1h meetings end to end). Maintain a backlog of projects that you can take on, and at any time only focus on a few active ones -- best one. Strive towards regularity, routine -- meetings always on the same day etc. (This only works if others do so too).

Delegation
Avoid the charade of insincere delegation, which has massive negative leverage. Delegation without follow-through is abdication. You can never wash your hands of a task. After you delegate it, you are still responsible for accomplishment, and monitoring is the only practical way to ensure a result.  Adapt your monitoring to the amount of experience the subordinate has with the task, less if they are very task-mature, more if they are new to it. Only go into details randomly, and just enough to ensure the subordinate is moving ahead satisfactorily. A manager should have six to eight subordinates, so he can allocate about half a day to each.

Batching
To make most of your time, group similar tasks, such as email reading, trade-news reading. Meetings and production time. Ask people to batch questions into scheduled times, like one-on-ones, instead of interrupting whenever they want. Make things regular, that were irregular.

Meetings

There are two kinds of meetings: process-oriented meetings, where information is shared, that are scheduled regularly, and mission-oriented meetings, to solve a specific problem, often to produce a decision, and that are called ad-hoc.

Timeliness is critical, It is criminal not to enforce it and allow latecomers to waste everyone's time. Being prepared is critical: if someone has not read up, stop the meeting and reschedule when they have. It is wasting everyone's costly time. Put discussion points that derail but need followup into a tickler file/list for future dates.

The One-on-one

Between manager, and direct report. Should at least last an hour, so the subordinate does not confine himself to simple things that can be handled quickly. It should be the subordinates meeting, with the agenda and tone set by him.

The subordinate should prepare an outline, which is important because it forces him to think through the points he plans to rise. He also should prepare supplementary material for that outline, and walk the supervisor through all the material.

Covered should be key indicators, especially those that signal trouble. Anything important that has happened since the last meeting, hiring problems, people problems, future plans, and very important - potential problems, issues that preoccupy and nag the subordinate. These are often obscure and take time to surface.

The supervisor should facilitate the subordinates expression of what is going on and bothering him. Do not talk with your subordinates about your problems, make them talk about theirs. Ask one more question, until you both feel you have gotten to the bottom of the problem. Be wary of a heart-to-heart issue brought up at last minute, though, when you can only with difficulty give it justice.

Both should take notes on the agenda, Take notes in outline form, which helps you categorize and sort the information. Follow up by checking last times notes in the next meeting. Create a "hold" file with important but non-urgent items for the next or future meetings. Exchange notes after the meeting, to make sure you have agreement.

One one ones foster development of a common base of information, handling of issues, enable effective delegation, and are essential if the supervisor is to make good decisions.


The Staff Meeting


A meeting of the supervisor with all his subordinates, to enable peer interaction. You get a much better understanding of an issue by listening to people with opposing views discussing it, instead of just listening to one person. Discussion is for anything affecting more than two persons present (otherwise, they can take it offline). If the meeting degenerates to a dialogue, suggest the two continue their discussion later.

An agenda should be prepared, but there also should be time at the end for open discussion of unscheduled items. Role of the supervisor is that of observer, expediter, questioner, decision-maker. Not lecturer.

The Operations review
Formal presentation to other managers, peers, and parts of the company. The organizing manager is the direct supervisor of the presenters, responsible for timekeeping, disseminating materials, organizing.  The reviewing manager it a higher-up manager, who should ask questions, make comments, set the spirit of the meeting, and encourage participation. The presenters should use visual aids. The audience should participate, make comments and ask questions, if something is not clear. Speak up if you disagree with an approach that is recommended. Go on record to correct factual errors. 

The Mission-oriented meeting

The chairman, the person who has most at stake has to drive this. He calls it, and he should prepare it. Imagine you are the chairman. Define a clear objective -- what needs to be resolved, what needs to be decided. (If you do not know what you want, you will not get it). Is the meeting necessary, defensible, justified? Only call it if it is, and call off it if can be resolved otherwise. The cost of meetings is about $100 per participant and hour. Identify who should attend and get them to come, or send someone else who is empowered to speak for him. Try and limit the meeting to six, maximally eight people, if you want a decision to be made. Maintain discipline. Call out latecomers. Make sure the needed equipment is present and in working order. Send out an agenda that clearly states the time, location, purpose, and everyone's role (presenter with duration, or not).
Once the meeting is over, nail down what happened, and send around minutes summarizing the discussion, decisions made, actions to be taken, by when and by whom. Send this out soon after the meeting, when it still is fresh on peoples mind. 

Decisions

Make or facilitate the making of good decisions
Decision-making produces a better decision if we are clear about: what decision needs to be made, by when, who will decide and who will be heard, who will ratify or veto it, and who then needs to be informed of it. Attendees to the decision meetings should have consulted their staff prior and gathered all relevant knowledge and views on the subject.
There is often a divergence between power of position, and power of knowledge. Junior people are closer to the issues and technology and understand them better. Make sure they are heard. Everybody should voice opinions as equals, ignoring status. The process for decision making should be 1. Free discussion, looking at the problem from all perspectives, 2. A clear decision, even if not everyone can agree it is the right one, 3. Full support by all, also those that did  not agree to implement it. If it turns out it was wrong, repeat. Take pains to frame the decision with utter clarity. Do not fudge to try and keep everyone happy by formulating it ambiguously.
Free discussion is the most difficult to achieve. People should express their view forcefully, but tend to hang back until they see a view winning, and then pile in to support it, to avoid being associated with a losing position. People are full of ambition, fear, insecurity. People are afraid to stick their necks out. People are afraid of sounding dumb, and do not ask, when they do not understand. They are afraid to be vetoed or overruled and thus to lose face in front of their peers. (I might add, they are also afraid of coming across as spoilsports, of being accused of undermining a can-do spirit). If sensitivities of two interest groups are involved, give both sides roughly equal representation in meetings to foster an even-handed decision.
Do not push for a decision prematurely, make sure you have heard and considered the real issues, rather than the superficial comments that often dominate the early stages of a meeting. Do not use authority to influence the exchange of views in any direction.
When all views and arguments have been brought out, when everything is heard, it is time to push for consensus. A decision has to be taken, even if no consensus can be found. A senior person with position authority must make a clear decision at that point.
To ratify a decision, listen to the alternatives and background, and reasons for the choice, and ask questions to probe the depth of information and thinking. If the final outcome is dramatically different from what people expect, make the announcement, adjourn so people have a chance to recover, then reconvene and solicit views, to help people accept and live with this outcome.

Approvals
For projects that require funding or capital, ask the subordinate to think through the entire matter carefully, before representing a request for approval. To test their thinking and decision making process, ask them specific questions during a review meeting. If they answer convincingly, approve.
Gather information
Visit plants, observe what is going. Visit customers. Read the trade press. Information gathering is the basis for all other managerial work. Gathering information is the basis for sharing and for making correct decisions. Customer complaints are a key input. Identify and defuse ticking time bombs before they go off. 
  • Detect and fix errors in a process at the earliest, lowest value stage possible. Reject before investing further value. (It is much more costly later, requiring more rework, discarding more work already done). Review rough drafts of reports you have delegated.
  • Use performance indicators to measure output (not: activity indicators, which measure only busy-ness, but no results, pair opposing ones to combat bias). Use credible leading indicators to look into the black box and get a feel for what the future may look like, and act on them. Use trend indicators, like a Stagger chart, that plots the development of forecasts over time. Collect these indicators ongoing and systematically.
  • Reports and Plans. The most useful information comes from brief, direct discussion. But written reports are necessary, less for the reader, for the writer: they force him to think things through, force self-discipline on the thinking. Likewise, the resulting plan is not important, but the process of writing the plan is. A capital authorization process is a must, because of the soul-searching analysis that it forces to support the spending request.

Leadership 

Lead and Train your employees. 
Communicate your objectives, priorities, preferences. Transmitting objectives and preferences is key to successful delegation. Act as a role model -- nothing leads as well as example. Values and behavioral norms are not transmitted by talk or memo or wall poster, but by visible action. Share and disseminate information. Most of the time you do not issue direct commands, you "nudge".

When a person is not doing his job, this can have two reasons: he either can't do it, or won't do it. (Aside: either train him if he would but can't, find another job for him, or, failing that, let him go. And you need to improve your hiring process). Fear and punishment may work to drive galley slaves, but won't work on computer engineers.

You cannot motivate someone, real motivation comes from within. All other forms, like safety through compensation, belonging and social affiliation, esteem and recognition are self-limiting. The only source of motivation that has no limit is self-actualization. Being the best you can be. The need for achievement is boundless. At that level, money is not the objective, but it is a way to keep score, a measure of achievement. You cannot stay in this mode, if you are always worried about failure (Note: this from a guy who was an outstanding achiever and who wrote a book called Only the Paranoid Survive. Does not parse. I think what he means is that you must be willing to take risks, or you will never stretch to your limits.) For achievers, the most important is feedback on his performance. They run to beat other people's bests, or in the end, their bests. They do not need incentives, they need an arena. A good manager must be a coach: take no personal credit for the success of the team. With achievers, be tough on the team, be critical, expect more. To get the best performance out of them they can achieve. And it helps if he used to be a competitor himself, so he knows and understands.

Manage people based on their task-relevant maturity. An experienced person can be a newbie with a new task. If they are, be task oriented, offer detailed, precise instructions, what needs doing when and how. As they mature, move more to encouragement, emotional support, listening and mutual reasoning. As they become very mature, minimize your involvement, just make sure the objectives are agreed upon. But always monitor progress to avoid surprises. It's the difference between delegating and abdicating. In all cases, you are responsible to transmit common values, which are a must for effective delegation. And for pragmatic reasons, try to raise the task maturity of your employees as quickly as possible.

Should you make friends with employees? This is a personal decision. But you will need to give tough feedback, give orders to or maybe even lay off an employee; this is very hard to do to a friend. (At the same time, if you deeply care about people, you will give that feedback, and will be mindful and respectful when you have to take painful steps).

Performance Review

These Reviews are the most important form of task-relevant feedback you can give. They should be done in any size of organization. The desired output is to improve the subordinates performance. You must first judge fairly a fellow worker, and then deliver this judgment to him, face to face.  Review is dedicated to first assess the subordinate's skill level, determine missing skills, and find ways to remedy the lack; second to intensify the subordinates motivation.
Performance Review: Preparing
First, review material such as progress reviews, performance vs quarterly objectives, one-on-one meeting notes (take good notes, so you have them). Sit down with a blank sheet. Dump everything on it, do not edit in your head. Get it all down. Major, minor. Don't matter. Once you are done, put the supporting documentation away.
Now, organize the things in groups, for positives and negatives; identify common themes, shared strengths, weaknesses, and turn them into messages for the review. Support them with specific examples. Think about what they will be able to remember, and cull your list to the most important ones. Just one or two major ones.

Even if you did regular one-one-ones throughout the year, you may be surprised of your findings. And even if they are uncomfortable, they need to be delivered. If you discover a surprise, swallow hard, and deliver it.
Performance Review: Assessing and Judging
For useful review, define the goals up front. Output measures (stuff that could be plotted on charts, like bookings, designs delivered, increased production yield etc), but also internal measures that will define output for future periods: are we achieving our present results by sacrificing the future, disgruntling employees etc, or are we doing it in a way our business can handle its tasks in the future?

We must weigh long-term vs short-term oriented performance. How much will the future oriented work pay back over time? How much is it worth today? Look at the time offset between activity and resulting output -- often results this year are really the fruit of a previous year's work. Most jobs involve work that is not producing output in the period of review, still, it has to be assessed.

You need to be as objective as possible, but in the end you must judge performance, which naturally has to be subjective. It's not just recording what is measurable in plain sight. Judge his personal performance, as well as the overall performance in his group. In the end, what counts is the overall performance of the group and the manager must add value in some way. Hi performance rating cannot be higher than that of his organization. What counts is results, not good form. At all times, assess performance, not potential. It's a trap.
Performance Review: Delivering the Message
Level: be frank. The credibility of the entire system depends on it.
Listen: make sure they understand the message. The goal is not to even document you delivered it. It is not delivered, unless you have been heard and understood. Watch them, look for signs with all your senses. Listen with all your might to make sure they get the message, and do not stop delivering until they have. 
Leave yourself out: this is not about you. Forget your anxieties, insecurities, guilt. At issue are the subordinates problems, not the supervisors.
Limit: The goal is not to clean your system out. They may have a finite capacity to accept and process facts. Your goal is to deliver the most important ones, to improve their performance. 
Best deliver a written review to your subordinate some time before the face-to-face discussion. He can digest it and react or overreact to the messages, and by the time you meet will be much more prepared, emotionally and rationally. 
Reviewing poor performers: poor performers have a strong tendency to ignore their problem, passively ignoring or actively denying it. If they cannot, because of overwhelming supporting facts (which you need to collect), they might justify it, by blaming others. Things tend to get stuck at the blame-others stage. They must take the step to assume responsibility, to accept it is their problem. This is fateful, as it means work. Once responsibility has been taken, finding a solution may be relatively easy. Assuming responsibility is an emotional step, which is much harder than the intellectual one of problem-solving. You as the supervisor must move them through all the stages of this process. You cannot try to go find a solution with him, if he still is stuck at blaming others or denying the issue. Knowing where you are will help you to move through together.
It is sufficient, if they commit to do it, even if they do not agree with your view. They do not need to side with you. They just need to commit themselves to pursue a course of action. On the job, we are after a person's performance, not our psychological comfort. Say "This is what I as your boss, am instructing you to do. I understand you do not see it my way. You may be right, or I may be right. But I am not only empowered, but also required to give you instructions, and this is what I want you to do..."
Reviewing the ace: concentrating on the stars is a high-leverage activity. If they get better, the impact on group output is great. No matter how stellar a persons performance, there is always room for improvment (?)
Review template: Name and role, review period, description of assigment (full paragraphs); accomplishments during the period (full paragraphs); evaluation with areas of strength and for improvment (full paragraphs, messages with supporting examples); outlook and recommendations (full paragraphs); overall performance score. Signed by manager, employee, HR with date
Read all the evaluations written by your own reports, and a random sampling from below that level in the hierarchy. Send them back with comments, and high visibility of this activity, if you want to impress the importance of this process on your organization.

Hiring and Interviewing

Interviews serve to select a good performer, educate him about your company, identify if there is a match, and sell him on the job. Reference checks do not exempt you from getting as much as possible out of the interview. Try to have a bit of a longer conversation with the reference giver, to build a relationship. Often you learn the most valuable information towards the end.

The applicant should do 80% of the talking, and it is up to you to steer what about. If they drone on, interrupt or stop them to conserve the valuable time you have with them. Apologize if you like and say, "I'd like to change the subject to ...". Try to talk about areas where both of you have expertise. Try to assess their technical expertise, their skill level ("describe some projects"), as well as how he performed in previous jobs using what he knows ("past achievements, past failures". Try to understand why there are discrepancies ("what did you learn from failures, what are problems in the current position"). Try to understand their operational values ("why do you want to change"). Don't worry to be blunt and direct. You can ask "How good are you technically?", and learn something from the response. Ask them how they would handle a hypothetical situation. Ask him what he would like to know, to understand how he thinks and how well prepared he is.

Show yourself and your environment how they really are. No point to hire someone, and then he hates it here.

Retaining Quitters
When a key employee quits, deal with it right away. Often this is about recognition, he feels unappreciated and unimportant to you. Don't confirm these feelings. Drop what you are doing. Sit him down and talk with him, why he is quitting. Let him talk, do not argue -- he has rehearsed his reasons many times. Let him talk, then ask him more questions. Because after the prepared points have delivered, the real issues will surface. You have to convince him by what you do, that he is important. Do not try to change his mind at this point. Then go to your supervisor for help and advice. Make him participate in the solution to your problem. If you cannot keep him with you, try if you can save him at least for the company. If all managers take this position, they will all win in the long run.

They will already have accepted, so you have to make them quit again. Say he really has made two commitments -- one to the new employer whom he barely knows, and one to you, his present employer.

Keeping them is even more important for the overall company than just his work. Other good people will respect him, and see this as an example to follow.

Compensation and Promotions
Once the absolute raise in compensation is not important any more, but the relative raise, you are out of the area of fulfilling basic security needs, and into the area, where money really just is a measure of success, for self-actualization. You want to allocate money, like promotions, as task relevant feedback. It always should be tied to performance. If you practice a pure tenure based policy, your message is that performance does not matter. A performance based system is obviously more work, as it requires a competitive, comparative evaluation of employees.

No action communicates values more clearly and loudly to the organization than a promotion. By elevating someone, we effectively create role models for the organization. They must be based on performance, to keep the idea of performance highlighted and alive. The Peter Principle unfortunately cannot be avoided, as you only learn if someone is up to the new task after they have been promoted, and not promoting them to keep them at their current job where they perform great, will make them leave unless they are happy that way. The one solution is to agree with them to go back to their old job -- obviously very difficult to do, but if done, often works wonderfully for both sides.
For managers, base a part of his compensation on the performance of his team, the performance bonus. Consider if you want to base this purely on quantitative terms, or if you want to balance with appraisal and be exposed to a beauty contest. Make sure that if the company overall does not perform well, than neither will the bonuses.

Training is the Boss's job
It is the highest leverage activity you can perform. To be effective it needs to be reliable and regular, not an ad-hoc patching up of issues, a process, not an event. The managers themselves should do it, as they are believable role models. 2-4% of the work time should be spent on training (about a week per year). You can train managers skills such as strategic planning, communication style.

The first task is to train new employees on the ways and values of the company. The second one is training new skills to all. Ask people what they think what training they need, then make a list of possible trainings to give. Take inventory of the available managers and materials, and make a priority list to deliver. Start small - one short course on one subject. Define a course schedule, with deadlines, prepare just the outline and the first session and go. (To force yourself not to get lost in spending all your time to prepare this). To limit damage, first do a trial run to knowledgeable employees, who can help you refine it. After delivering it, ask for anonymous ratings, in score but also open ended comments. Be aware you'll never satisfy everyone -- what is too detailed for one person is to superficial for another. The person who will learn most from the course, of course, will be - you.

Find the most cost-effective way to deploy your resources.
Analyze processes for work simplification: chart out every single step. Then look for simplifications, cutting 30-50% of the steps. ("Complicated cases make bad laws"). If there is a set deadline, work backwards from there, identify the rate limiting steps, and arrange the rest around it.

Plan

1. Establish projected need -- what will the changing environment demand of you, your business, your organization? (Don't consider at this stage what practical steps to take to get there, this will just confuse the issue). How do you know?
2. Establish your present status -- what will you produce if you do not do anything different than what you do now?
3. Reconcile -- what will you need to do to to close the gap and produce what the environment will demand?  What can you do? Then decide what actions to take. This set of actions is essentially your strategy, and the details to implement them are the tactics. The strategy on one managerial level is often the tactics on the next higher level.

Today's gap represents a failure of recognizing and planning in the past. What do you have to do today to solve or better avoid tomorrows problems? In long term planning, look at the next five years. But what you really influence, is the next year. You will only implement one portion of the overall plan, before you review it. Be careful not to plan too frequently, so you have time to judge the impact of the decisions made and see if you are on the right track or not. (Annual seems reasonable, with monthly or quarterly progress review).

Involve the operating management in planning. Planners must be the very people that have to implement the plan.

Saying yes to a project means saying no to something else. Keep the number of projects small. If you focus on everything, you focus on nothing. Each objective must be specific and have a due date, so there is no room for ambiguity.

Organize

"All large organizations with a common business purpose end up in hybrid organizational form", that is, with functional company wide units that enable critical mass of know-how (sales, R&D, admin), and localized or product-specialized business units that enable the business to respond to the demands and needs of the market environment. Thus, many people will need to dual report -- to the local or business manager, and to the functional  or corporate manager. There also can be peer group supervision. For this to work, you must have a strong and positive corporate culture.

The most important characteristic of culture is that the interest of the group to which an individual belongs takes precedence over the interest of the individual himself. For this to happen, all need to share a common set of values, a common set of objectives, a common set of methods, generated by common, shared experience. This makes it easier to work on tasks with high complexity, ambiguity and uncertainty (which are often the higher paid leadership roles). New employees cannot have this culture, need to get familiar with it, so will have a hard time coming into a leadership position from the outside in a company with strong company culture.

2018-08-13

Made to Stick [Book]

by Chip & Dan Heath

I rate this book on how to create messages that stick, influence how people act and are retold as slightly above average as far as easy reading business books go. The material does not much suffer much from aging. The findings are reasonable albeit somewhat unsurprising. Even has a nice quick reference in the back.

Their main point is to overcome the Curse of Knowledge: it is extremely hard to forget everything you learned yourself about your specialty, put yourself in your listeners' or readers' shoes and create messages that work for them and their background knowledge.

According to the authors and studies they cite, good messages share some common attributes:

1. Simple. Good messages keep to the main point, like finding the headline for a newspaper article. What is the single most important thing? If you have 5 different messages, you have none. Express it succinctly. Images and Analogies to things the listener knows work well to get the idea across. Examples: Movie concept pitches, Commander's Intent, SW Airlines as "THE low-fare areline".

2. Unexpected. An element of surprise helps to capture attention. Asking questions to pique curiosity, delay answers to keep interest. Unexpected and audacious objectives. Examples:  pocketable radio, putting a man on the moon. There will be no school next Thursday. 

3. Concrete. It is hard to picture or remember abstractions or statistics. Again, images help, examples and prototypes help. Many hooks help (Velro theory of memory). Experiencing things helps. Map things to ones experienced at human scale. Compare fables, proverbs. BB bullets to show nuclear proliferation, blue vs brown eyes "the wave" experiement. White things vs white things in your fridge. Rookie orientation on AIDS. Visualize what it would be like.

4. Credible. Details help. Authorities help. Anti-Authorities, i.e. normal people just like the listeners help. The Sinatra test (one proof point that is all you need "If you can make it there you make it anywhere"). Testable credentials -- i.e. let the audience try it themselves / answer it for themselves.

5. Emotional. If you don't get moved by the message, you will likely forget it quickly. Use individuals, not groups (1 death is a tragedy, 10,000 is a statistic); use emotional stories that work for the audience's identity/self-image (rebellion for youth, toughness for rednecks); appeal to self-interest "What's in it for me?", but do not just appeal to Maslow's Basement.  Examples: "They laughed when I sat down at the piano ... but when I started to play!" mail order ads, Don't mess with Texas. 

6. Stories. We are wired to remember stories, not data. Keep your eyes and ears open for stories you can use. Typical plots: challenge - stepping up against near impossible odds, connection - family, friendship etc., creativity - surprising solutions to overcome challenges. Stories also often are emotional, visual/concrete, have details to make them credible, or unexpected twists. Examples: heart monitor, Jared and the subway diet

All of which combines to a cringe-inducing SUCCES acronym.

2018-05-21

Great at Work

by Morten T. Hansen

A book about how to be more effective as an individual at work (mostly in larger, commercial companies). This is in the tradition of "The effective Executive", just based on a big benchmarking survey.

The real meat of this book is in the Research Appendix. The main part of the book is just fluffing up, or, if you like to think more positively about it, interpreting what the numbers mean and turning them into stories with the help of case-study interviews. So, what were the contributing factors, and their relative impact on productivity and maintaining work-life balance?

The first insight is that doing more hours is not the way to go. Productive output increases steeply up to about 50 hours, then flattens off, and beyond 65 hours it declines. The numbers may be slightly inflated due to self-reporting of higher numbers. This is fully in line with the earlier findings in productivity for software engineers, where net work output also flattened after 50 and declined after 60 hours. That means, added benefit to the work is questionable in exchange for your lifetime after about 50 hours, and negative after about 60 to 65 hours. An insight to live by.

Unfortunately, the study did not evaluate hours worked as one of the factors next to the other practices it promoted, so a direct comparison of impact is not possible. He graded both inputs and productivity output on a scale of 1 to 7. When ignoring the practices, correlation between hours and output was extremely high, with beta coefficient of 0.91 (The beta coefficient is the degree of change in the outcome variable for every 1-unit of change in the predictor variable.). The study was controlled for age, gender, tenure and education. Of those education had the largest impact when seen without the practices, about 0.13, tenure hat about 0.05.

He lumped together various practices into 7 buckets, sometimes mixing two pretty different elements, so it is not always clear which of the elements contributes how much to each.

He also categorized the practices into what (Job Design, Do less,  and Disciplined Collaborations), how (Learning Loop), why (Motivation in Passion and Purpose, Do Less then Obsess) and who (social interactions - in Forceful Champion, Fight and Unite).

Here are the buckets in order of impact (once you control for all above including hours):

Do less, then obsess. Focusing on only few goals, and then putting a lot of effort in to get them perfect. (If you just did less, you would not get great results). 0.28

Passion and Purpose. Being passionate about your work allows you to put in the effort and stick with it. While it also meant typically putting in a bit more hours, it foremost meant, putting yourself fully into the hours you work. However, one can be passionate about work that does not create much value, and in spite of all the great effort one does move little (think of most card magicians, or people working on well-meaning but misguided charitable projects). He thus adds another requirement, which is again about focusing on the kinds of work who have the biggest impact and pay off. One could have moved that part in with "Redesign work", which is also about selecting to work on what matters, but unfortunately, it's baked in with passion here, at a combined 0.19. I suspect if you pulled it apart, the passion part by itself would rank lower than the next  one:

Disciplined collaboration. Essentially the same thing, as Do Less, with a focus on external partners (from other parts of the business or outside of it) - do few collaborations, and put in the effort on them. 0.13. I would lump both of those together. Focusing on being great in just a few areas of excellence, by yourself or with partners, would overall yield 0.41 in lift.

Learning Loop. This combined the attitude of constantly wanting to learn, not thinking you know it all, with an openness to experiment and try things out, and eagerness to get feedback to understand how you are doing and where things can be done better 0.15.

Taking the do less and obsess spirit to heart here, we can stop. Lets just focus on focusing and experimenting in the area of focus, and we are good. However, for completeness' sake, the list continues:

Forceful Champions. Again this combines two ideas, influencing others (by smart tactics, understanding how they think and what they want, by politics, getting yet others to influence them, by emotional appeal via stories; not by being charming), and grit, not giving up in face of resistance, just keeping at it, until people give in because it is less work then resisting. 0.11

Redesign Work. Reinventing your work or job to enable you to work on the most meaningful thing, instead of just willing a role in an outdated org chart. I think this could be higher if you pull out the purpose part from Passion and Purpose. 0.6

Fight and Unite. This is a charming section about decision making in group settings, where you want to have robust disagreement and diversity to get to the best overall thinking, and then follow with commitment by all to implement the chosen plan. Includes a little gem about meeting culture at Reckitt Benkieser, where they did not leave a meeting until a decision was reached, instead of scheduling another meeting. And a wonderful quote attributed to Cyrus the Great "Diversity in counsel, Unity in command". Unfortunately, contributes only 0.6 to individual greatness.

Do Less (0.22) and Disciplined Collaboration (0.08) were also the best contributors to work-life balance, followed weakly by Redesign, while all the others had slight negative impact here.

The situation looks similar for low burnout, although there Fight was stronger negative, and Passion a pretty strong positive (0.1). The biggest factor for job satisfaction was Redesign, at nearly 0.2 -- clearly when you can define your own job, you tend to like it. Do Less did nothing here, while the social dimensions of Collab and Champion had a positive correlation.




2017-11-22

Decisions

How do you make good decisions? As a manager, as a leader, as a general: making the right decisions, and instilling hope, purpose and a feeling of team unity in your troops are probably the two things that in the end make the difference between building enterprises or empires and failing.

Simple Internet guides advise

  1. Know the objective of your decision. If you do not know what you want, you won't get what you want. Consider this within your larger plans, how does it fit with them. Think about how important it is to make a decision in the first place. Are you really addressing the root cause of the issue that needs to be resolved? What is that root? Ask why repeatedly.
  2. Gather evidence. What kind of evidence is out there? Where can you get it, how can you get it? How much do you need? You need to manage your time here, there is a point of diminishing returns.
  3. Weigh the pros and cons. Make a list of the different options, and list what is the pro and con of each. What is the worst that could happen? What is the good? What are known unknowns that have an influence. Write the pros and cons down in a list.
  4. Ask for advice. Whom can you ask who has had similar challenges and can give you good advise? Friends, family, colleagues, peers, or someone who is an expert in the field? Be sure to ask for advise, not validation.
  5. Set deadlines - by when will you decide, by when will it be implemented?
  6. Take your ego out of the decision -- make sure you are honest with yourself and informed, rather than just seeking affirmation and praise. Don't think the value of your decisions determines your own value, look for opportunities to learn and grow from your decision-making process.
  7. (Don't be afraid to follow your intuition, and don't let fear guide your decision.)
  8. Decide, and follow through. Evaluate the outcome later -- was it what you expected?


The difficult thing about decisions is that there will be pros and cons and you have incomplete and unreliable information when you make them. You make decisions based on assumptions, and have little time to test them. And mind you, not making any decision effectively is also a decision, to stick with no action -- and sometimes the worst one.

In the military they say, if you hear something from one source it is noise, if from two sources, it is a rumour, and if from three sources, it is actionable information. I know of few managers who are disciplined enough to wait for the third confirmation of something they feel is going on.

I think Darwin was a great man, because when he had a theory or assumption, what he did was searching out any possible way to disprove it; and only if his theory could stand up to the strongest counterarguments he could think of, then he knew he was on the right track. You need a lot of mental fortitude and maturity to be able to do that.

In business, you often do not have the time to test your assumptions in this way? Try and think of easy and cheap ways to test and prove or disprove your assumptions.

The most common mistakes about decisions are either, to not take them, to waver and hem and haw, going back and forth (that's my most common failure mode), or to make them but flip back and forth too easily, not sticking to them, when new information and views become available, or to stick to them if they are wrong, even when clear counterfactual information becomes available. Also common is to make a gut decision up front, not keeping an open mind, and then only looking for supporting information, and dismissing counterfactuals.

Think about what kind of a decision you are dealing with. This is the best way to understand, what kind of heuristics you should apply to the process of taking them.

Is the decision unimportant, no matter which way it is taken? Ignore it.

Is the decision a unique situation that will not repeat, or is it something that is just the first of probably many similar situations? In the latter case, spend more time on thinking things through, and come up with a good general policy, that will save you from having to make the decision over and over on individual cases in the future.

Is the decision reversible, and will not commit you for the long term, or at huge cost? Then just pick something, and move on.

If you have to make decisions for a larger group, even if you are in a position of power, how do you ensure that the group will not silently undermine or sabotage the decision, that it does not only pay lip service to it?

How do you in a group bring out all the facts, how do you enable people

One way is to involve them as much as possible in the decision making process.

One of the main risks is that people are afraid to look stupid. Hence they tend to hold back their opinions, until a probable winning view can be seen, and then they pile into it.

There is often a divergence between power of position, and power of knowledge. Junior people are closer to the issues and technology and understand them better. Make sure they are heard. Everybody should voice opinions as equals, ignoring status. The process for decision making should be 1. Free discussion, looking at the problem from all perspectives, 2. a clear decision, even if not everyone can agree it is the right one, 3. full support by all, also those that did  not agree to implement it. If it turns out it was wrong, repeat. Take pains to frame the decision with utter clarity. Do not fudge to try and keep everyone happy by formulating it ambiguously.

Free discussion is the most difficult to achieve. People should express their view forcefully, but tend to hang back until they see a view winning, and then pile in to support it, to avoid being associated with a losing position. People are full of pride, ambition, fear, insecurity. People are afraid to stick their necks out. People are afraid of sounding dumb, and do not ask, when they do not understand. They are afraid to be vetoed or overruled and thus to lose face in front of their peers. (I might add, they are also afraid of coming across as spoilsports, of being accused of undermining a can-do spirit).
If sensitivities of two interest groups are involved, give both sides roughly equal representation in meetings to foster an even-handed decision.

Do not push for a decision prematurely, make sure you have heard and considered the real issues, rather than the superficial comments that often dominate the early stages of a meeting. Do not use authority to influence the exchange of views in any direction.

When all views and arguments have been brought out, when everything is heard, it is time to push for consensus. A decision has to be taken, even if no consensus can be found. A senior person with position authority must make a clear decision at that point.

To ratify a decision, listen to the alternatives and background, and reasons for the choice, and ask questions to probe the depth of information and thinking. If the final outcome is dramatically different from what people expect, make the announcement, adjourn so people have a chance to recover, then reconvene and solicit views, to help people accept and live with this outcome.

The important decisions, the ones that really matter are strategic. They are about finding out what the situation is, or changing it: on business objectives, organizational, affecting productivity, or about major capital-expenditure decisions. For these, the hard part is not problem solving, it is asking the right question. Few things are as dangerous as the right answer to the wrong question.
A decision should always be made at the lowest possible level, as close to the action as possible. It also should be made at the level where all that it impacts are considered. The first tells how far down it should be made, the second, how far down it can.
Once the decision has been made, it is essential that it be carried out. Nothing is as useless as the right answer that quietly disappears into the filing cabinet, or that is quietly sabotaged by the people supposed to carry it out. Decision-making has five phases:
1. Defining the problem
What courses of action are unacceptable and can be discarded, because of fundamental values, economic, moral, structural, cultural issues that cannot be touched? (quick-screen)
What is the critical factor that has to change before anything else can be done?
What will happen in time, if nothing is changed?
What could have been done or avoided, when the problem first appeared, that would have altered the present situation?
It the problem lack of or contradiction of objectives or organizational structure? Is it changes in the environment?
2. Analyzing the problem (finding the root cause of the problem)
Understand who must make the decision, who must be consulted and who informed:
i. What is the futurity of the decision — for how long into the future does it commit the company? How fast can it be reversed?
ii. What is the impact on other areas and functions — how much of the business does it affect?
iii. Does it affect fundamental values? What political, ethical, social questions have to be considered on that level?
iv. Is it a unique decision or is it recurrent? Does it only appear to be unique? The recurrent decision requires the establishment of a general rule, that is, a decision in principle. The rule needs maybe to be decided on a high level, but its application can then be done at a lower level. (This is like laws).
You will never have all the facts. Decisions must be made on incomplete knowledge. It usually is either impossible or too costly to get complete information.
3. Developing alternative solutions
We tend to see one solution and consider it the right if not the only one. Look for at least two or three alternative solutions. Do not just do the first thing that comes to mind. Alternative solutions are the only means to bring underlying assumptions out, and test if they are right. They are to only tool to force us to use our imaginations.
People who have to carry out the decision should always be involved in the work of developing the alternatives. All the typical creativity tools can be used here.
No action is a decision as valid as all other ones. Spell out the consequences that follow from a decision for no action.
4. Deciding upon the best solution
i. The decision should accomplish the desired end with minimum effort and disturbance. Don’t pick an Elephant gun to kill sparrows. What will give the most result for the least effort and disturbance? Often a 80% solution that is easily done is preferable to a vastly more resource-hungry 100% solution. (I combined here risk and effort.)
ii. Timing. Is urgent action needed, or long, continuous effort?
iii. Ability to implement. No decision can be better than the people who have to carry it out. It is well possible that the solution requires skill from people they do not possess today. Then the right course is to hire or train people to obtain this knowledge. The wrong decision may never be adopted because people and the competence to do what is right are lacking. If a solution requires more of people than they can give, they must learn to give more or be replaced by people who can. (How do you afford this? Often you are restricted by economical reasons to not do that?)
5. Converting the decision into effective action
Time spent on “selling” the solution is a waste. If the first steps were done right, it will sell itself by improving things. Also, what is right is determined by the nature of the problem. If people like it or not is quite irrelevant. They must be led to accept it, if they first like it or not.
To do so, remember the first law of rhetoric: present it to them in the language they speak and understand.
Biases
It is good to know about biases you have, courtesy of hardwiring by evolution for surviving as a hunter and gatherer in the wild, that may mislead your thinking when making decisions. There is a whole list
Tools
  • Make a list of Pros and Cons
  • Generate a second idea how to solve it. Brainstorm.  Do not go with the first thought you come up with, without at least looking for a non-obvious, better solution.


2017-10-23

Biases

Rolf Dobelli has compiled a list of cognitive biases in his book “The Art of Clear Thinking”. Kahnemann’s Thinking Fast and Slow also explains many of them, in the voice of the researcher that discovered them in the first place, and Cialdini’s Influence highlights how social biases are leveraged to manipulate us. Being aware of these biases is important for decision making. And because of this, they crop up in just about every management book, with the same stories and experiments told. This is my take and categorization on such a list of biases, together with ways to remember them, and the experiments that established them.

Social Biases

Biases that are created from our need to fit in, on social pressure, and inhibits our ability to think independently and fact based.
Authority
Halo Effect
Liking Bias
Reciprocity
Scarcity Error
Social Loafing
Social Proof
Authorityif an expert in a white lab coat says something, or an expert on television, then it has to be true. No, it has not. From: Cialdini Influences. Experiment: Stanely Milgram Electroshocks, 1961. Related: Halo Effect.


Halo Effect: one dominant attribute influences your perception of others. For example, good looking people are perceived to be more intelligent than they are. If you like someone, you tend to interpret their behaviour more favourably. Related: Liking Bias. 

Liking BiasThe principle of mutuality. The more we like someone, the more we allow us to be influenced by them. Liking is driven by physical attractiveness, similarity in background and attitudes to ourselves, and by feeling we are being liked by them. It has been shown that more than anything they say, looks are a predictor of success in elections. (Where?)  Conversely – nothing works better to make people like you than letting them feel that you like them. Antidote: think of the deal without the person, or with someone you don’t like.

Reciprocitycome in good sir, here take a cup of tea. Let me show you my beautiful carpets. If we get something, we want to give something back. We feel indebted. We do not want to be in debt. Even if that thing is small and insignificant in cost, like a free cup of tee, a flower or other gesture. It makes us willing to reciprocate, often in a much larger an more expensive buy. Beware of vendors bearing gifts. From: Cialdini Influences.


Scarcity Errorrara sunt cara. we find scarce things more attractive, even if the scarcity is created artificially. A form of Social Proof, if others want it too, it must be good. From: Cialdini Influences.

Social Loafing. Teams are lazy, as no on is accountable, and giving your all will mostly go unrewarded, not doing so, undetected. At about 20 people in the group, the effect maxes out. Also called Diffusion of Responsibility. In larger management teams, nobody is responsible for a decision alone, and failure will not hit him in particular. So most will not put their best effort in to think it through, and the group will take larger risks, the so called “risky shift“. Antidote: make individual contributions visible.


Social Proofall the others are doing it, I must be wrong, even if I do not understand it. This is especially compelling if those others are similar to you. This urge is natural, because you can err, and what everyone does is in many cases an excellent heuristic for what the safest thing to do is. But in investing, and in many other cases this drives bubbles, and doing what everyone does is the worst thing you can do. The reason why you trot out customer stories, lists of customers, and testimonials. From: Cialdini Influences.

Ego Biases

Biases that originate in our need to have a positive self-image, or overvalue our power. To look good in front of others, and ourselves. These are difficult, but can be overcome with humility.
  • Action Bias
  • Beginner’s Luck
  • Cognitive Dissonance
  • Confirmation Bias
  • Consistency bias
  • Control Illusion
  • Endowment Effect
  • Overconfidence Effect
  • Self-serving Bias
  • Sunk Cost Fallacy
  • Winner’s Curse
Action BiasWe do not get paid for activity, we get paid for being right (Buffet). People rather do something than nothing. You do not look as if you are in charge if you do nothing, even if that is the right strategy, for example for investing. It pays to pass on all the mediocre opportunities and wait for the big ones. Its harder to do though, if you are sitting on a pile of cash and feel you have to act. Also: being busy may satisfy your conscience, in telling yourself you do what you can, but does not mean you achieve something. It’s the good boy’s procrastination. Results count, not your activity. Related: Omission Bias, Status Quo Bias.

Beginner’s Luck. were you only lucky, or are you good? If you at first succeed, you run the risk to overestimate your ability and put too much on the line. RelatedSurvivorship Bias.

Cognitive DissonanceWho would want stupid grapes, said the fox, when he could not reach them. Like in Aesop’s fable, instead of being honest with ourselves if we cannot achieve something, or made a mistake, we rather tell ourselves a lie to make us feel better about it. That means we do not take action to achieve it, or repair it. Experiment: Festinger/Carlsmith at Stanford, Students paid less to lie about a boring works attractiveness, found it less boring — presumably because they had to justify having done it to themselves. 

Confirmation Bias: one of the worst and most fundamental biases. And one of the hardest to avoid: if we believe something is right, we become invested in that idea. Instead of looking for possible ways to invalidate it, and thereby harden it when it survives these tests, we look for evidence that supports our idea, and even ignore or reinterpret evidence against it. Antidote: Write down disconfirming evidence, otherwise your brain will forget it. Look for it actively. Have alarm bells go of in your head if you hear something that contradicts your plan or theory labelled as “special case”. Related: Survivorship Bias.

Consistency Bias (also: Hobgoblin's)a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds (Thoreau). We desire to be internally consistent and stick to positions we took. We do not want to admit to having made a mistake, to ourselves or others. We want to save face. So we continue with an erroneous judgment, instead of admitting to be wrong and doing the right thing. Are you secure enough to admit to having made the mistake? Related: Sunk Cost Fallacy.

Control Illusion: you think your actions influence the outcome more than they do. You also think in hindsight success was due to your effort, while you happily attribute failure to luck.  Antidote: focus on things really under your control.  Anecdotes: placebo buttons on lifts, red lights for crossing the street in NYC, office air conditioners. Related: Self-serving Bias.

Endowment effect
Just take it for a test drive. As soon as you possess something, you do not like to give it up again.  That is why car salesmen want you to drive the car. Why pet stores let you take the puppy home. Also: once we buy and own something, we value it higher. Think trading cards – what you trade away for a card is much less then what you need to give up that card again. This also works against you in auctions – you feel as if it is yours already, and you defend it against other bidders. Antidote: Buddhism or Stoicism. Do not hang your heart onto things.


Overconfidence Effect The tendency to overestimate your own ability to estimate future outcomes. When estimating the outcome of future events, you often underestimate the breadth of possibilities due to a host of related biases. Established: Marc Alpert, Howard Raffia.

Self-Serving BiasIf I win, I’m to credit, if I lose, the circumstances are to blame. People like to believe that success is made by them, but failure is not their fault. It’s natural, you do not want to face that you are to blame, or did not really contribute that much. This is weak, as you do not recognize areas where you could improve. Think Magic. There is no point to blame bad luck. Analyze your game and eradicate your mistakes. Being self-righteous means you never improve. Antidote: good friends, or at least an enemy. Related: Control Illusion.

Sunk Cost FallacyI cannot stop now, or I’ll lose all the money and ego I already have invested in this. People have a hard time admitting they made a mistake. You want to be consistent in your behaviour, believable and trustworthy. That is what makes it hard to revert a course of action. You are loss averse and do not want to admit the money is lost, and nothing gained. But it is lost, if you put in more or not. You should only evaluate the current situation, and decide based on it what the right course of action is. Don’t throw more good money after bad. Related: Consistency Bias.

Status Quo Bias. We tend to overvalue the situation as it is. One example is, you wonder if you would move to another city for a job that pays $50,000 more, giving up your social envrionment. But if you picture yourself already being there, would you accept the $50,000 paycut to move back home into your current environment? Antidote: imagine the alternative to be the current situation Related: Endowment Effect.

Intuition Biases

Biases that originate in our intuitive thinking patterns that overvalue visual and story, and undervalue things that require require probability thinking, consideration of invisible options or that need projections of math.

  • Alternate Path Blindness
  • Anchoring
  • Availability Bias
  • Base-rate Neglect
  • Contrast Effect
  • Exponentiality Blindness
  • Fundamental Attribution Error
  • Gambler’s Fallacy
  • Memorability Bias
  • Outcome bias
  • Omission bias
  • Probability Bias
  • Self-selection Bias
  • Story Bias
  • Survivorship bias
  • Zero-Risk-Bias


Alternate path blindnessMy live was full of calamities, of which most never happened. (Montaigne). If you only look at successful outcomes, you ignore the alternative possibilities that never happened. Russian roulette for a big bet, and diligently working half your life have similar expected value, but vastly different alternate paths. RelatedSurvivorship Bias.

Anchoring. A number we hear influences our estimates, acting at an anchor. Even if it has nothing to do with the question at hand. This is why negotiators start with a very high or low offer — to anchor our response. Experiment: Kahnemann, Tversky Wheel of Fortune. 

Availability Bias: you tend to consider things that are in front of you, and fail to consider things that are not. We overestimate things that are easy to recall. “Don’t wake the sleeping baby” in Japan is advise to not making the negotiation partner aware about something he is not. Antidote: work with people that are very different, and from different backgrounds, that bring other ideas and perspectives. Related:

Base-Rate-Neglect. humans ignore the a base rate prior probability in absence of evidence,  and overestimate the evidence. Imagine an introverted man with glasses — is he a professor of literature or a truck driver? The image we see fits better to the professor. We ignore that there are thousands of times more truck drivers than professors. Also happens often in medical diagnosis -- the base rate has a huge impact, and a common diagnosis a priori has a much higher chance to be right.

Contrast Effect: you do not well judge things in absolute terms, you tend to judge them in comparison to their environment. Thus Tobi’s Law, that if all the girls at a party are bland, the one least so will appear pretty. Thus Harner’s Alpha/Beta theory, why pretty girls have unattractive best friends. Thus Goldilocks Pricing, putting an extra expensive option up, to make people buy the medium priced one, instead of the cheap one. Related: Anchoring

Exponentiality Blindness
The story of the wise man, who asked for a rice seed on each field of a chess board, doubled. Humans suck at projecting and visualising the effect of sustained exponential growth over longer time periods. Antidote: divide 70 by the annual growth rate: this is the number of years needed to double the amount.

Fundamental Attribution ErrorNo story without face. We like to tell ourselves stories that explain why something happened, even if there is no simple explanation in reality. And stories need actors. Thus the tendency to overestimate the influence of individuals like presidents and CEOs. Antidote: Look for interests and influences, not people, driving developments.

Gambler’s FallacyThe roulette ball landed so often on red, it must land on black now. Obviously bunk, the probability of independent events is exactly that, independent of the past. In a fair roulette wheel, the probability for red or black is (ignoring the 0) 50%, no matter how often a color has appeared.

Logical and sequencing errors. Biases that confound cause and correlation.
Correlation for Causation
Association Bias
Conjunction Fallacy
Swimmers Body Illusion
Hindsight Bias
Regression to the mean
Hyperbolic discounting
Induction

Traps and dangers. Biases that do not fit the other categories, and may be based on evolutionary ingrained behavior that is not appropriate to today’s world, or on our overall limited capacity to make decisions or process information, or just on fraud due to lack of consequences for the individual.
Framing
Loss Aversion
Incentive superresponse tendency
It gets worse before it gets better
Tragedy of the commons
Selection Paradox
Prognosis Illusion
Hedonic Treadmill
Fake knowledge

List of Biases with Short Explanations


Survivorship Bias: I’ll look at highly successful results to understand what it takes to achieve success. Looking at successful outcomes gives you an incomplete idea if something works. It ignores that success can also be the result of many people trying something, most failing, some succeeding just by random chance, and those are the one you now examine. Antidote: look for the failures that had the same strategy, or survivors that had another strategy. Anecdote: a priest claims the letters of shipwreck survivors as proof of the existence of god, and then a sceptic asks: where are the letters of those that did not survive? Example: Dropping out of college. Survivorship bias may suggest this is a great strategy to get rich — just look at self-made milliardaires like Jobs and Gates who did this, and even studies that show that more of the millardaires dropped out than of the average person. However, if you look at the overall number of such milliardaires, and compare it to the number of peope that dropped out and never got a decent education and now as their job have to sell fries, you can see that for the average person, this may be a horrible strategy. Related: Confirmation Bias
Swimmers Body Illusion: All swimmers seem to have athletic bodies. Ergo, swimming must be great to get an athletic body. This is a special version of the common mistake of mixing up causation and correlation, the most extreme case of confusing cause end effect. People with a naturally athletic body have a better chance to become successful swimmers, and thus successful swimmers you see all have great bodies. Antidote: ask yourself if you really see causation or just correlation. From: Nassim Nicolas Taleb
It will get worse before it gets better: not really a bias, but a trick that allows consultants of all kind to be always right — if their guidance doesn’t work, they told you so. If it does work, this warning is happily forgotten.
Story Bias: wir merken uns Geschichten, nicht fakten. Und wir merken uns Dinge die eine Begründung haben leichter, als welche die keine haben. Egal ob diese sinnvoll ist.
Hindsight Bias: in hindsight everything seems obvious and easy. We forget, how unclear things were, when we made the decision. Antidote: write down your reckoning and reasons when making the decision, so you can check back.
Fake knowledge: know your circle of competence and stick to it. It may be possible to snow others and fake knowing an area by using soundbites, but it is not possible to make sound decisions that way. Anecdote: Max Planck’s talks on quantum dynamics and his chauffeur.
Incentive Superresponse TendencyDon’t ask the barber if you need a haircut. People deliver what you incentivize, not what you intend. External incentives lower performance, rather than intrensic incentives of making a good job. And consultants paid by effort will find ways to create unneeded effort. Not really a bias, but a cautionary note.
Regression to the mean. If things are bad, and then get better, or things are good and then get worse, this may be caused by their natural tendency to revert to the mean. You tend to overestimate the influence of your actions on this.
Tragic of the commons. A shared resource without cost is used by each user so heavily that it will be worthless to all. In an anonymous society there is no social shaming as control mechanism to stop selfish agents. Whenever the benefits of something accrue to the individual, but the costs are shared (for example pollution), management and laws are needed. The free market will not fix it.
Outcome bias. Judging decisions by their result, not by the decision making process. You can win a game of magic with luck, even if you made play mistakes. You can lose it even if you play flawlessly. You can succeed in stock picking by pure luck. Don’t judge someone purely based on the result. (Of course, it is hard to objectively judge the decision making process, and easy to see the result).
Selection Paradox. It is harder to decide on something the more options you have. Too many options lead to decision overload, you cannot evaluate them all. In the end you either take no decision, to not take the wrong one, or take one and are dissatisfied because you suspect it was the wrong one. Experiment: Barry Schwartz, Marmalades – customers bought more when there were fewer to choose from.
Memorability BiasAll the lights are red when I drive. We remember annoying things, and forget about all the cases where the lights were green. We have a tendency to igore prior probabilities. If something improbable happens, we tend to ignore the many times the probable happened. 

Neglect of probability: humans tend to ignore probability in assessing the impact of a risk, and only look at severity. Severity is easy to picture, probability isn’t. Experiment: Electroshock experiment — people were as afraid of the shock, wether there was a 100%, 50% or 5% chance to get a shock. Only the strength of the shock influenced the fear level. Only exception: at 0% chance, people were relaxed. 

Zero-Risk-Bias. We overvalue a risk going to zero. Experiment: People preferred a risk going from 1% probability to 0% over 5% to 2%, even though in absolute terms, the latter is a three times larger reduction. 


Winner’s Curse. In auctions, Endowment Effect and Scarcity Error combine powerfully to the bidders disadvantage — the party that ends up winning is often is paying too much, more than the good is worth. If you sell something, like a house or car, the best way to get a good price is to have multiple bidders, and run them against each other. Antidote: Buffett recommends to just not bid in auctions. 


Induction. Guessing from past experience at future events. This is actually highly rational but still may go very wrong. Imagine a geese being fattened for Christmas — every day she is fed, life is good. Until that fateful day when suddenly, she instead is killed. Antidote: think about what is driving the observed behavior, and if that still holds. 

Loss aversion. In the past, a mistake often was deadly. So we are primed to be more careful about risks than greedy for benefits. You can easily survive without eating honey (or anything) for quite a while, but one mistaken encounter with a bear, and you are history. We experience losses about twice as strongly as equivalent wins. Argue with avoiding a possible loss, not with a possible win, if you want to convince. Most employees shy away from taking risks, because if they win they may get a small bonus, but if they fail they might lose their job.

Taking correlation for causalityMarried people live longer. Ergo, marriage is good for living longer. Or is it maybe, that healthy people have better chances of finding a partner? This is one of the most fundamental and common ones. Antidote: check if you really have data that indicate a cause-effect relationship. 
Halo-EffectPeople do judge the book by its cover. Looking only at the most visible attribute, and letting our judgment of all others be influenced by it. We think beautiful people are smarter.

Prognosis IllusionThere are two kinds of people – those that know nothing and those that know nothing and do not know that they know nothing (Galbraith).Experiment: Tetlock showed by reviewing more than 80,000 prognoses, that the prognoses of experts do not differ much from random prediction.

Conjunction Fallacy. We attribute higher probability to stories that seem to “make sense”, even though they logically have to be less probable. For example, Experiment: Kahnemann & Tverski: people asked what was more probable “Oil consumption drops 30%” or “Oil consumption drops 30% due to a steep rise in oil price” preferred the latter prediction as more probable, even though the former one included it, among many other possible reasons.

FramingIt’s not the song, it’s the singer. Depending how the facts are presented, they are seen differently. This is different from Anchoring, as it is not dependent on a context. Famous Experiment: Kahnemann & Tverski: people preferred saving 200 people out of 600 over a 1/3 chance to save all, and at the same time preferred a 1/3 chance to kill no one over killing 400 out of 600. Mathematically they are all equivalent, but we prefer sure gains and are Loss Averse. As we inherently are naturals in imagining probabilities, the probability based versions seem less substantial in either case.


Omission Bias. We tend to overvalue errors of commission, compared to errors of omission. Putting money in the wrong stock feels worse than not putting money in a great stock. Killing someone feels worse than not saving someone from being killed. Related: Action Bias. The difference is that for action bias the situation is less clear. Here it is often clear what one should do, but does not feel so urgent.

Hedonic Treadmill. Buying things only makes us happy for the short term. Soon they become the new normal, and we are back to where we started. True happiness or being content only comes from within, from the ability to be grateful, to enjoy the small things. It does not come from amassing things. Experiment: Dan Gilbert investigated self-reported happiness of people after they won in lotto or lost the use or their legs in an accident. A few months later, they all were back to their base levels. The winners sometimes even less happy. Antidote: avoid chronic negative experiences like noise, long commutes, stress. Don’t expect happiness from things. Be in control of your time, autonomous. Care for others.

Self-Selection Bias. See above – the feeling that you are somehow specially selected or unlucky, in the slow lane all the time. It’s just because only then you start to think about it. If you are in the other group, you do not mind.

Association BiasShoot the messenger of bad news. We tend to associate things that appear together, even if they have no causal relation. We are superstitious, and wear our lucky pants.  Experiment: Pawlow’s dog.
Hyperbolic Discounting.Leider geil. We have a hard time resisting instant gratification for something that pays off more in the future. That’s why we party and watch youtube videos, instead of studying or getting our work done. We are more willing to forgo money in a year to get a higher payout in two, than willing to forgo money now to get a higher payout a year from now. Experiment: Walter Mischel, children who had the choice of eating a sweet now, or get two if they wait. The ones who waited, had better career success.