Blink

A whole book on how people make decisions from their gut, in a split second.

You recognize patterns subconsciously, so you often know something is the right thing, even while you can't explain why. Not having having to explain yourself enables rapid cognition. Arguably, this mode of operation is what enables us to function in daily life. It also is how experts work.

In contrast, the idea of rational decision making is that you collect, tabulate and weigh all the information, then make a deliberate decision. But how to weigh? When to stop collecting information? How to know you have reached a point of diminishing returns? The rational approach leads to paper pushing and inability to reach a decision. In fact, it has been shown that decision-making needs an emotional, irrational component, and that is probably smart to get out of this fix.

Collecting information still is very is valuable, as is discussing it with others, who hold other opinions, to get a better grip on how the world looks like and bring out the truth. Just do not become obsessed about it.


There is a nice case in the book about a psychologist, who could with over 90% probability tell if a couple would be married ten years down the line, by just taping and analyzing ten minutes of their talking with each other an random topics.